Five-day forecasts that scare away tourists by warning that a hurricane could be bound for South Carolina's coast can have costly consequences. A hurricane that does strike our state can have not just costly, but deadly, consequences.
Yet the Council of Myrtle Beach Organizations appears to have missed that critical distinction while, according to The Associated Press, "leading a push to go back to the three-day forecasts." The group will meet next month to address the issue, aiming to minimize the economic impact of hurricane predictions on our state's tourism economy.
John McMillan, the council's executive director, criticized this year's change from three-day to five-day models that officials now use in planning possible evacuations, telling AP: "It was done without any public input. It's causing a lot of confusion."
That so-called confusion recently gave coastal residents an early heads-up on the potential menace presented by Hurricane Isabel to the East Coast -- including South Carolina's coast. However, Gary Loftus of Coastal Carolina University's Clay Brittain Jr. Center for Resort Tourism also expressed reservations about the five-day forecast: "In this case, the five-day track didn't hurt us. But the concerns are still there. I still think a five-day window is too broad and unnecessary."
A letter writer on this page obviously strongly disagrees with those concerned about the business impact of the five-day forecasts, and Frank Lepore of the National Hurricane Center noted in response: "The model performed in excellent fashion. It's serving the function for which it was designed." That's clearly a vital function.
Though Isabel declined in strength from the strongest classification, a Category 5 storm, to a Category 2 by the time it hit land on North Carolina's Outer Banks and Virginia's southern coast, it still caused at least 38 deaths, considerable property damage and widespread power outages that have persisted, so far, for nearly a week.
The generally accurate five-day forecast for Isabel won't necessarily be as accurate for the next hurricane that forms in the Atlantic. But that five-day forecast can still be a valuable asset in the mission of protecting lives, and there is none more important.
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