Sen. John McCain is not officially running for president.

Not yet.

He's just making all the moves in that direction and doing nothing to dissuade anyone from considering him a candidate.

advertisement

With the 2008 presidential election more than three years away, the Arizona Republican is making it clear in nationally prominent ways that a second run for the White House is more than on his mind; it's a distinct possibility that is now in its formative stages.

McCain consistently has said on network television and in profiles by such dissimilar national magazines as the New Yorker and Men's Journal that he'll make no firm decision until after the November 2006 midterm elections.

"It is still 2005. President Bush was only inaugurated for his second term less than five months ago. Most Americans think it's crazy to begin the next presidential election this early. So do I," McCain told The Arizona Republic. "Since I have not decided to run, I don't think I need to speculate about my prospects."

But unmistakable evidence builds that McCain and his supporters are laying the early groundwork of a campaign for him to succeed Bush.

Consider:


• The four-term senator has been busy traveling to other states since last November's election, including events in New Jersey, Florida and Michigan, at the request of local parties or candidates. In the case of Michigan, he has gone there twice since March. He also is set to appear in Illinois on Friday and has made other public appearances in New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Maine and Oklahoma.


• McCain or his operatives have reached out in recent months to political consultants based in at least two other key states, Texas and South Carolina, letting them know he is exploring another run for the White House.


• Beyond the magazine profiles and a recent TV movie about his years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, McCain has a new book coming out in October. He also is maintaining a feverish pace as a top guest on network and cable TV news programs, ranging from appearances on CNN to the Fox News Channel.


• McCain has staked out lead roles in a slew of recent headline-grabbing congressional activities. Those range from ridding professional sports of steroid use, to probes of a lobbyist's steering of tribal political contributions to lawmakers, to immigration reform, to his brokering of an eleventh-hour compromise on judicial filibusters in the Senate.

Taking all this together, presidential candidate-watchers such as David Mark, editor of Campaigns & Elections Magazine, says, "It sure looks like he is running.

"He's making the rounds. Sending out the feelers. He's doing all the things you'd expect of a presidential candidate at this stage."

Even McCain's 93-year-old mother, Roberta, told the New Yorker, "I think he's running for president."

Hedging bets

But Rick Davis, McCain's 2000 national campaign manager, said McCain has time and he is going to make the most of it.

Davis suggested that McCain would not be under the same pressure to launch an official all-out push for the White House as early as some others.

"The reality is that he is probably, next to the president, the most sought-after Republican surrogate in the country, and he'll continue to serve in that capacity and travel when he can," Davis said.

As McCain himself sees it, he is ready and able to lead the country in the post-9/11 era of a global fight against terrorism, a persistent war in Iraq, burgeoning budget deficits and intense political partisanship that threatens to overwhelm progress toward solving the nation's problems.

But McCain told The Republic, "As I've often made clear, I have not made a decision about seeking my party's presidential nomination in 2008. Neither have I given the question the serious and detailed consideration it requires."

He added, "People have been kind enough to encourage me to consider another run. And I'm flattered by their offers of support. But, as they will confirm, I've not made any decision, privately or publicly."

Several people close to McCain, including campaign team members from the bitter 2000 contest with Bush, said in interviews that they hope or anticipate that the senator will run again and even acknowledged that they already are thinking of potential GOP primary election strategies for 2008.

"My feeling is he is leaning in that direction. My hope is he will do it. And my hope is this time, this is the charm," said Richard Quinn, South Carolina media consultant for McCain's 2000 presidential campaign.

Quinn said he already has been visited this year by Lanny Wiles, McCain's campaign advance man in 2000, as well as had telephone conversations with John Weaver, who was McCain's political director in 2000.

But Quinn and others also say they believe the senator has not made a final decision about whether to run. They insist he has not given them instructions to start organizing a campaign team.

"I think he believes there's nothing he needs to do or wants to do for the next two years other than be a good senator," Davis said. "In his mind, sometimes that means shaking things up in Washington . . . and let the chips fall and see where they are at the end of 2006."

Still, at the very least, McCain already seems to be actively measuring his chances in 2008.

Support lining up

Last Tuesday, the Dallas Morning News reported that Mark McKinnon, an Austin-based political consultant who oversaw advertising for Bush in 2000 and 2004, has committed himself to helping McCain in 2008 if he runs. This came after the two recently met over lunch in the Senate dining room.

And last Monday, McCain traveled to Macomb County, Mich., outside Detroit, to appear at two Republican events. The state handed him one of his bigger GOP primary victories in 2000.



McCain is expected to make another trip to Michigan in September when thousands of grass-roots state Republicans gather for their biennial leadership conference at Mackinac Island. Traditionally, a number of GOP presidential hopefuls attend that event.

'I like his chances'

Chuck Yob, GOP national committeeman from Michigan, who backed Bush over McCain in 2000, said in an interview that he hopes McCain runs again in 2008 and that "this time, I like his chances a lot."

On Friday, McCain is scheduled to travel to Evanston, Ill., to deliver a commencement speech at Northwestern University. He also will appear at an event in behalf of Rep. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and the local party.

McCain already has given commencement speeches this spring in Castine, Maine, and Norman, Okla. And on Nov. 18, he went to New Hampshire, the state that holds the nation's first presidential primary every four years, to be the featured speaker at the New Hampshire Bar Association dinner in Manchester.

McCain also has traveled to New Mexico, Colorado and Florida with Bush to promote Social Security reform.

McCain explained to The Republic that much of this travel has been to help strengthen state and local party organizations and to help promote Republican candidates "as I have done in hundreds of similar events throughout my political career."

Signs are there

But it is not only McCain's travel that suggests he may be jockeying for position heading into 2008.

Arizona's senior senator also has been on a big publicity roll.

McCain was a key player in forging a bipartisan agreement on judicial filibusters, one that happened to undermine the authority of one of his potential 2008 GOP presidential rivals, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

There was the premiere last month of a made-for-TV movie based on McCain's Navy pilot ordeal as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

McCain also has been grabbing headlines with his sponsorship of steroid legislation and a bipartisan proposal for immigration reform that has put him at the forefront of one of the expected big issues in the 2008 race.

And a book tour is coming.

In October, McCain's and co-author Mark Salter's new book, Character Is Destiny, is scheduled for release by Random House. The book, their fourth together, is aimed at children and young adults and focuses on how to build good character.

The underlying assumption by McCain backers heading into 2008 is that the senator is the most well-known and popular of the potential Republican Party presidential candidates.

"And that's not a bad way to start," Davis noted.

Early national polling done in April by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., indicates that McCain would enter the 2008 primary season as the Republican who runs the strongest against potential Democratic general election foes such as Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York, John Kerry of Massachusetts, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Fences still to mend

But although McCain's political independence and bipartisan slant on such issues as campaign finance, judicial filibusters and global warming continue to help him achieve high marks in polling that includes independents and Democrats, his popularity ratings slip when only Republicans are asked about him.

For example, the Marist poll revealed that just one out of five (20 percent) GOP members preferred McCain among a field of lesser-known potential GOP candidates, putting him second behind former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (27 percent), who is much more moderate than McCain on some social issues.

Mark, the Campaigns & Elections Magazine editor, and some party members, including South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson, say this is a reflection of how McCain continues to "grate" on the nerves of many of the party's more conservative members.

McCain may be anti-abortion, pro-family, fiscally conservative and strong on defense.

He may argue that he has since mended some fences with conservatives through his adamant support of the Iraq war, or by his pitch for Bush with a speech at the Republican National Convention in New York. But Dawson said Republicans in South Carolina aren't convinced.

McCain's teaming with Democrats last month in a compromise over Bush's judicial nominees helped to rekindle their mistrust, Dawson said.

Then, there has been McCain's constant criticism of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, his refusal to quickly put an end to speculation about possibly being Kerry's running mate last year, and his push for new campaign-finance rules that "have put the handcuffs on state parties," Dawson said.

"To fire up the old Straight Talk Express down here now will take a lot of work," Dawson said, referring to McCain's 2000 campaign bus. "Quite frankly, I don't know how he recharges it."

But Quinn, McCain's 2000 South Carolina media consultant, says his recent polling in South Carolina indicates that the senator now has approval ratings as high as 68 percent among Republicans in the state.

And New York-based pollster John Zogby, who says he has talked "informally" to McCain contacts, says that McCain now does "reasonably well" among conservatives across the country.

Other issues

McCain's age and his health could become campaign issues.

He'll turn 72 in August 2008. Only Ronald Reagan at age 73 was an older president at his inauguration - at the start of his second term. A long scar on the left side of McCain's face is a reminder of his battles with melanoma, a potentially fatal form of skin cancer.

"I won't run for president if my health and age would prevent me from doing the job to the satisfaction of the American people," McCain told The Republic.

'Walk on broken glass'

Marshall Wittmann, a former communications director for McCain and an adviser to McCain's 2000 presidential run who is now with the Democratic Leadership Council, said that if McCain does decide to run for the White House again, Wittmann won't hesitate to join his team.

"I'd walk over a field of broken glass for Senator McCain," Wittmann said. "One thing that transcends party loyalty is my admiration for John McCain."



Reach the reporter at billy.house@arizonarepublic.com or 1-(202)-906-8136.