But winning South Carolina may not be the pot of gold that some pundits are making it out to be. Nor does it assure Democrats a South Carolina boost in November, especially if the economy continues to improve and President Bush's job approval ratings rebound.

Six other states also are holding a primary or caucus Feb. 3, including Missouri, the home state of candidate U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt. He's sure to be the favorite there.

South Carolina's vote also comes four days before voters in the more populous Democratic strongholds of Michigan and Washington make their choice. Both states have Democratic governors and are home to large groups of minorities and labor.

A month later, on March 2, comes what is being labeled 2004's "Super Tuesday" when 11 states are voting, including the big population states of California, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Minnesota and Georgia.

With bigger and more traditional Democratic prizes up for grabs elsewhere, South Carolina's early vote is realistically more of an in-state, party-building tool rather than a true show of national influence that will make or break any candidate, some experts say.

"Get real," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. With nine candidates in the mix, "odds are there are going to be multiple winners" in the early primaries, he said, adding it could take far longer for Democrats to settle on a nominee than expected. He said money would be one of the bigger factors in the dropout rate.

"Unless (Howard) Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and then wins in South Carolina, I doubt it will be over," Sabato said, adding South Carolina "is unlikely to be the decisive primary."

Until the 2004 primary was scheduled, South Carolina Democrats hadn't held a meaningful presidential primary since March 1992 when Bill Clinton won with 63 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate field. Last year, state Democratic leaders were looking for ways to rekindle interest in the weakened party and received permission from the Democratic National Committee to move the state forward toward the front of the pack. South Carolina, largely identified as a Republican state in presidential politics, has voted for the leading GOP candidate for years.

Democrats, looking to steal some of that magic, say the calendar change has so far done what they intended, at least in terms of carving out a national niche.

"We're getting a lot of candidate focus, which brings in the media focus -- more than we ever had," said Carol Khare, vice chairwoman of the S.C. Democratic Party. "The important thing is that South Carolina Democrats have a voice in who the nominee is, and you almost have to be an early state to do that."

Democrats hope up to 300,000 voters will take part Feb. 3. But whether there will be any lasting impact on the process is doubtful, given so many other more Democratic prizes down the road. "Every state tries to say theirs is the most important," Sabato said, "but the results are soon forgotten until we have a nominee."

South Carolina has 55 convention delegates up for grabs in the primary, most of them divided among the state's six congressional districts. Of all the delegates, only nine won't be committed to a certain candidate heading into the national convention July 26-29 in Boston.

Recent South Carolina polls at various times have shown the two dueling front-runners appear to be North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark. A poll of 400 registered voters released in late November by The Feldman Group for Greenville Magazine favored Edwards, putting him in the lead with 17 percent, followed by Al Sharpton with 12 percent, Dean 11 percent and Clark at 11 percent.

But in a Zogby poll released Friday, Dean led with an 11 percent following in a survey of 500 likely primary voters. There was no clear favorite, however, as the top five candidates ñ Dean, Joe Lieberman, Clark, Edwards and Sharpton -- were within the survey's margin of error.

Some pollsters say the Democratic primaries will be the easiest part of the race for the candidates when compared against the even bigger chore of trying to defeat Bush in November. The president's poll numbers are on the rise nationally in an improving economy, despite the ongoing military losses in Iraq. The National Annenberg Election Survey of voters taken around Thanksgiving gave Bush a 61 percent approval rating.

The news also was tough for Democrats looking to 2000 as a model. Post and Courier pollster Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. recently conducted a survey for news outlets in Florida -- where the 2000 election was narrowly decided -- testing Bush vs. the top five Democratic challengers. The survey of 625 registered voters showed Bush beating each by at least 20 points.

Statewide in Florida, Bush led Lieberman 56 percent-36 percent, Dean 59 to 36, Clark 56 to 33, John Kerry 57 to 34 and Gephardt 58 to 36 percent. The poll had an error margin of plus or minus 4 points.

"If these numbers hold up over the next year, it will be very difficult for the Democrats to win in Florida," said pollster Brad Coker.

2004 PRIMARY/CAUCUS SCHEDULE

Jan. 19 Iowa*

Jan. 27 New Hampshire

Feb. 3 Arizona

Delaware

Missouri

New Mexico

North Dakota*

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Feb. 6-9 Democrats Abroad*

Feb. 7 Michigan

Washington*

Feb. 8 Maine*

Feb. 10 Tennessee

Virginia

Feb. 14 Dist. of Columbia*

Nevada*

Feb. 17 Wisconsin

Feb. 24 Hawaii*

Idaho*

Utah

March 2 California

Connecticut

Georgia

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota*

New York

Ohio

Rhode Island

Vermont

March 8 American Samoa*

March 9 Florida

Louisiana

Mississippi

Texas* (combination)

March 13 Kansas*

March 16 Illinois

March 20 Alaska*

Guam*

Wyoming*

April 13 Colorado*

April 17 Virgin Islands*

April 27 Pennsylvania

May 4 Indiana

North Carolina

May 11 Nebraska

West Virginia

May 18 Arkansas

Kentucky

Oregon

June 1 Alabama

South Dakota

June 6 Puerto Rico*

June 8 Montana

New Jersey

*Specifically denotes caucus, otherwise vote is considered a primary

Source: Democratic National Committee

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