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Date Published: September 21, 2004
Hugo: 15 years later
Meteorologists, safety officials look back at the storm
and how forecasting has changed
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Item file photo
First
Baptist Church sustained major damage during Hurricane
Hugo. |
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By RANDY BURNS
Item Staff Writer
rburns@theitem.com
Fifteen years ago tonight, residents in Sumter, Clarendon
and Lee counties were aware that a major hurricane was poised to
strike the coast of South Carolina. On that September morning in
1989, the National Weather Service issued a hurricane warning from
Fernandina Beach, Fla., northward to Cape Lookout, N.C.
All
South Carolina television newscasts warned of possible destruction
on the coast wherever the hurricane made landfall and for miles east
of the center of the storm. Hugo had caused catastrophic damage in
the Caribbean but had weakened to a Category 1 storm. Before
striking the S.C. coast, Hugo had regained strength and was a
Category 4 storm when it pounded Charleston before midnight on Sept.
21. There was little talk, however, about the hurricane posing a
problem for inland communities. Residents in the tri-county area
were used to hurricanes hitting the coast and then going out to sea.
Never before had a hurricane come straight through the area with the
intensity of Hugo.
"We considered Hugo to be a coastal
threat," said Vic Jones, public safety director for Sumter County.
"That's how we were trained before Hugo. All of the bulletins that
day talked about the effects on the coastal counties. I didn't think
it would come this far inland. It was a wakeup call for me. Hey, it
was a learning experience for the professionals at the National
Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service as
well."
The Federal Emergency Management Agency recognized the
experience and knowledge Jones gained with Hugo and has used him
extensively as a trainer for federal and local emergency management
officials.
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| Jones has traveled to 23
cities training others on effective response strategies to
hurricanes. Jones and William Winn, emergency management official in
Beaufort County, are on a Hurricane Liason Team that is involved in
training federal and local emergency officials on best strategies in
hurricane responses.
Jones said technology has changed the
way storms are followed by professionals and the
community.
"Before Hugo, we followed the storm with paper and
pencil," he said. "We knew where the storm had been. Now, we all
have the computer-generated data that projects the impact of wind
bands and rain bands. We can look ahead five days. It's a new day
for forecasting storms. The National Hurricane Center does a
tremendous job in getting the information out to the
public."
Jones said television news and weather broadcasts
play a vital role in preparing communities for pending
emergencies.
"The media needs to be trained," Jones said.
"It's critical that we all be on the same team."
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| Jones acknowledged that he has
concerns that the public received some mixed signals with the last
two storms affecting the United States.
"I had people asking
me why television was saying something different about where the
hurricane was going from what I was saying and what they were
hearing from the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather
Service," Jones said. "I turn on the television and here I am
getting something different on TV than what was coming from the
National Hurricane Center. It is a serious issue."
Ken
Aucoin, chief meteorologist at WIS-TV 10 in Columbia, recognizes the
importance of his job.
"It's a huge responsibility," he said.
"We have changed the segments in our news in recent years. People
are much more attuned to weather and the impact it has on their
lives."
Aucoin said the advances in technology have been
important in improving the accuracy of weather forecasting. However,
hurricanes and tropical storms provide a significant challenge for
everyone involved in the business of making forecasts, Aucoin
said.
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| "The Hurricane Center provides
a track that is updated every few hours," Aucoin said. "For Frances,
there was a huge fan of uncertainty about the track of the storm.
They were not real sure. We were privy to the discussion that they
were having at the National Hurricane Center. They can only put out
one forecast. ... History has shown us that storms rarely go across
Florida, into the gulf and then north. We were trying to alert folks
that there was a 50 percent chance that the storm might directly
affect South Carolina."
Aucoin said it is important for the
public to realize the error cone is huge in a five-day
forecast.
"This is the second year the Hurricane Center has
issued a five-day forecast," he said. "I think it's good, but people
need to recognize that there's plenty of uncertainty about the storm
track when you go out to five days."
Today, weather forecasts
are the centerpiece of TV news broadcasts. Almost every TV newscast
begins and ends with weather.
"There's a lot of heightened
interest in weather forecasts after we got kicked like we did with
Hugo," said Ron Smith, director of the Department of Social Services
in Sumter and Lee counties. "We all went to school with Hugo. I had
no idea that a hurricane could do the kind of damage it did in
Sumter County. I had a vague recollection of Hazel as a boy, and I
remember it blowing down the top of a tree in my yard. I had no idea
that the power in the entire county could be gone."
Smith said he
is affected by the threat of every new storm.
"It makes my
stomach knot up," he said. "There's nothing like going through
something like Hugo to make you look at a storm
differently."
As part of the emergency response team, Smith
said he focuses his attention on preparing for emergencies and
always being ready in case the worst happens.
"We all have
our different perspectives," Smith said. "When it comes to the
weather, it is going to do what it wants to do. Look at Ivan.
They're now saying that it's going back to affect Florida again. I
remember with Hugo that the last report we heard before it hit
Charleston was that the center of the storm could be in Sumter by 4
a.m. At about 2 a.m., I turned to someone, I think it was Traci
Quinn from The Item, and I told her if this wasn't the center
then we were in serious trouble."
Aucoin said Hugo continues
to have an effect on how all of us view future
storms.
"People in Mississippi talk about Camille," Aucoin
said, "and people in South Carolina will always talk about Hugo. I
was in New Orleans at the time, and I stayed up all night keeping
track with what Hugo was doing. Hugo was different from most
hurricanes in that it hit the coast straight on with such speed. It
didn't go parallel like most do. It kept a lot of its strength as it
moved northward. It lost some of its power when it went inland, but
you're talking about 135 mph winds. It takes a while to lose that
kind of power."
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September 21, 2004 
