SANTEE, S.C. - The key to winning the Democrats' first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina will be connecting to blacks, who could make up half of voters in the Feb. 3 contest, political experts say.

"It's the first real test of how the surviving Democrats would do in a state that has a really large African-American presence," says Earl Black, a political scientist at Rice University.

Blacks won't play nearly as large a role in the state contests held before South Carolina's primary. Blacks make up just 2 percent of the population of Iowa, which holds its Democratic caucuses Jan. 19, while fewer than 1 percent of the people in New Hampshire, which has its primary Jan. 27, are black.

A traditional core block of Democratic voters, blacks make up nearly a third of South Carolina's population. "The Democratic Party in South Carolina has a considerably higher proportion of African-Americans than mere population alone would suggest," Black said.

The nine White House hopefuls know the first Southern state is a barometer of how they will fare in the South.

Politicians courting the black vote in churches, civic group meetings and schools are hearing a lot about racial health disparities, higher rates of blacks in prison, the loss of jobs and affordable housing.

"The issues of that are important to African-American voters will certainly be discussed in this primary more than anywhere else," said U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, who represents South Carolina's majority-black 6th Congressional District.

"People are very, very interested in the issue of health care," he said. "I don't know what it means to voters up in New Hampshire and Iowa, but I know what it means to people in South Carolina."

Clyburn, who is black, said he considered a bid for president to energize voters for the 2004 race. That's why it's important to keep a candidate like the Rev. Al Sharpton, who is black, in the race, said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon.

"He keeps African-American interest in the primary," Huffmon said. "As long as he's in, perhaps, the antenna of more African-Americans are up and paying attention."

Former ambassador and U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, D-Ill., is the other black candidate running for president.

Sharpton said that while the Rev. Jesse Jackson didn't win the Democratic nomination in his 1984 run for president, he inspired a wave of black voter registration that affected state and congressional races for years afterward.

"If I bring out a lot of voters, those voters could make the difference in the Senate race, which will run simultaneously," Sharpton said of Democratic U.S. Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings' decision not to run for re-election next year.

"That Senate race is vital," Sharpton said. "If that seat goes Republican then that's another nail in the coffin on affirmative action." Sharpton said it also would affect the approval of federal judges because they all have to be approved by the Senate.

While most experts say black candidates energize black voters, getting those votes isn't guaranteed.

The Rev. Keith Starks, 29, of Greeleyville, says he likes Sharpton as a preacher, not as president of the United States. "I just think it's a wasted vote," Starks said.

Starks said he supported Al Gore in the 2000 presidential race and now favors Gore's former running mate Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.

"He's just going to pull a lot of black voters," Starks said of Lieberman.

The retired Rev. Eugene Wright of Orangeburg said he will meet with local Democratic leaders to decide which candidate to support.

"Race has nothing to do with it, not a thing, because I think we're all feeling the pinch now," Wright said. "We're not going to put a man in the office simply because he's black. We're going to put a man in office who's qualified."

Jackson said he was not concerned about any one of the candidates fragmenting the black vote.

"People must look at the smorgasbord of candidates and make choices based upon who they feel can convey their message," he said.

Jackson said South Carolina's primary should be beneficial to working people - black and white.

"The African-American vote and the working class white vote share common interest in South Carolina and in every state," Jackson said. "That's what this race has to be about. The plight of the working people.

"You have a sinking middle class and an expanding class of poor people," he said. "They must use their vote to make their presence felt in that primary."