Hurricane Frances continued to steam across the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, but forecasters say it is too early to tell where the storm will strike the mainland United States. Before it hits, it is expected to gather strength and become at least a Category 4 storm.

"It looks to be a pretty decent storm, so it's something we definitely have to pay attention to," said meteorologist Bob Bright of the National Weather Service.

Though the storm is still days away from the Southeast coast, authorities already are mulling how to handle mass evacuations, should they be needed. Any evacuation would be huge because of the size of Frances, Charleston Mayor Joe Riley warned.

"The whole state would be naked," he said. "This will be a challenge to all of us because we have so many more people living down here now. We really haven't had a ... potential challenge like this."

Even a lesser storm could be cause for worry. The Lowcountry has been pounded by two significant storms in the past month. The region is just plain wet. Another heavy rain will almost certainly bring more flooding and topple trees whose roots can no longer cling to the loose soil.

"Should we receive 10 or 12 inches, like Berkeley County just did, then we would have a major incident on our hands," said Ken Harrell, emergency services director for Dorchester County. "There is no doubt about that."

Authorities throughout the region are closely monitoring the storm's progress and tightening their emergency plans while still working to clear all the mess Gaston left behind. There was plenty of it. The tropical storm dumped about 350,000 cubic yards of debris on Charleston County alone, said Charleston County spokeswoman Jamie Thomas.

"We're still busy trying to recover from Gaston," said Jason Patno, Berkeley County director of emergency management. "While we're looking back, we're having to look ahead at the same time."

As of 5 a.m. today, Frances was about 125 miles north of St. Martin in the Northern Leeward Islands. The storm already was packing sustained winds of 125 mph.

"The good news is that now the intensity has gone down from 140 mph to 120 mph. But it still has yet plenty of time to intensify," Ron Osborne, director of the state Emergency Management Division, said during a meeting Monday with area mayors.

Osborne said the National Guard could be placed on standby as early as today to be ready to help with evacuations and provide security if the storm threatens. Evacuations could be needed by week's end if the storm approaches, he said.

"This particular storm is strong, big and we really need to monitor it closely," Osborne said. "We're looking toward the end of the week, if it stays on this track, to take some action."

Gov. Mark Sanford urged residents to pay close attention to the storm's progress. He warned that a major hurricane like Frances could cause far greater catastrophic damage than either Charley or Gaston. "A Category 4 or Category 5 storm would be very, very bad and it's important we not grow complacent," he said.

A high pressure ridge in the Atlantic could keep the storm on a southerly track toward the Florida area, but if that ridge weakens, Frances could move farther up the coast, Bright said.

Forecasters hope to know more by Thursday or Friday, he said.

The current track shows the storm reaching Florida by Saturday, although the course could change .

Emergency management officials say it is not too early for people to begin making plans, such as choosing an evacuation route, finding a place to stay and deciding what belongings to take on the trip.

"I would strongly encourage anyone who ignored Charley or Gaston and did not prepare, this is the time to remedy that situation," Harrell said.

HURRICANE FRANCES

Frances, a category 3 hurricane about 1,260 miles from Charleston as of 5 a.m. today, was forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall somewhere between Vero Beach and Titusville, Fla., by Saturday.

In issuing this forecast, the center cautioned, "It is extremely important not to focus on the exact (forecast) track, especially at 96 and 120 hours, because the hurricane is not a point, and especially a hurricane as large as Frances. Forecasts at these extended time ranges can easily have errors of several hundred miles."

The center noted that a deep-layer subtropical ridge was apt to be the dominant steering force directing the path of Frances over the next several days, tending to keep the storm south of the southeastern states, except for Florida, and moving west to northwest through the five-day forecast horizon. Although the ridge is expected to weaken enough to allow for some movement northwest, there is no significant mid-latitude trough apparent in the area that would substantially weaken the ridge.

Already packing maximum sustained winds of nearly 125 mph, Frances could grow in intensity to the 140-mph category 4 range by the time of landfall.

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