CHARLESTON - As Democratic presidential
candidates move around South Carolina in the run-up to the Feb. 3
primary that national political observers are calling crucial, they
find themselves speaking to audiences that rarely number more than a
few dozen people.
The crowds not only are more sparse than those greeting the
candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, whose contests precede South
Carolina's, but they're smaller than those that turned out for
George Bush and John McCain at a similar stage in the 2000 S.C.
Republican primary race.
Political observers say the turnouts are reflective of the
condition of the S.C. Democratic Party in a state that appears
poised to have an outsized say in who the national party nominee
will be.
Once solidly Democratic, South Carolina has voted Republican in
every presidential election since 1976. Democrats were routed in
last year's state elections, losing the governorship and both
legislative chambers for the first time since Reconstruction.
"It's just remnants," said Ken Holland of Gaffney, the Democrat
who represented the 5th Congressional District from 1974 to
1982.
A week ago, Holland surveyed the group of 30 folks who showed up
at a Gaffney restaurant to meet N.C. Sen. John Edwards. It was
Edwards' only S.C. campaign appearance of the day.
"I probably could have given you a list of the people who were
going to be here before I saw them," Holland said. "They're
basically old-line, traditional Democratic people."
Several days later, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman visited the
state.
He followed a pair of events in Columbia with a two-hour ride in
a rented motor home to Charleston, where he spoke to about 50
supporters before flying off to Florida.
In the preceding few days in New Hampshire, Lieberman had drawn a
crowd of more than 250 for an outdoor speech in Manchester.
Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry had spoken to about 200 people on a
downtown sidewalk in Warner, and retired Gen. Wesley Clark addressed
more than 500 in front of Dover City Hall.
Edwards drew about 70 onlookers for an appearance in Hampton
Falls earlier this month.
In Iowa, the story was about the same.
"Iowa and New Hampshire are used to being the focus of attention
six months before anybody votes," said Winthrop University political
science professor John Holder. "South Carolinians aren't used to
that yet. Most Democratic voters haven't started paying that much
attention."
S.C. Democratic Party leaders pushed hard to get approval from
the Democratic National Committee to schedule their primary in a
coveted early slot just a week after New Hampshire, making it the
first in the South, guaranteeing national attention.
The S.C. Republican Party took that step more than 20 years ago,
with smashing success. Beginning with the first GOP presidential
primary in 1980, South Carolina has been one of the key states to
winning the Republican nomination.
In 2000, Bush and McCain crisscrossed the state for nearly a
month, generating major excitement that led to a record primary
turnout of 565,000.
"Republicans traditionally have done a better job of
communicating than we have," said Holder, who is secretary of the
York County Democratic Party. "It's probably the case that more
people were aware of the early Republican primary in South Carolina
four years ago than are aware of the early Democratic primary right
now."
To the extent that the Democratic presidential hopefuls have been
able to generate much interest in South Carolina, it has been before
predominantly black audiences. Blacks are about one in four S.C.
voters, but they are expected to cast as much as two-thirds of the
Democratic primary vote.
"We know that less than 15 percent of white men in South Carolina
identify themselves as Democrats," said Democratic political
consultant Kevin Geddings. "If you don't identify yourself as a
Democrat, you're not going to be a Democratic primary
participant."
For that reason, all the Democratic candidates are concentrating
their attention on black churches and black political
organizations.
State Rep. Joel Lourie, D-Richland, who is helping with
Lieberman's campaign, said he considered the turnout of about 65
people a success, considering that S.C. Democrats aren't used to
this sort of off-year campaigning.
"The politicians and the capitol crowd are excited about [the
primary]," Lourie said, "but when you get into the schools and the
neighborhood associations, I don't think very many people know we
have a big primary race going on."