Florida Gov. Jeb Bush activated the National Guard early Wednesday and declared a state of emergency statewide. But he prepared for these storms several months ago when he warned against complacency. South Carolinians are in the same mental situation as Floridians. "We haven't had a major storm in a while, and I think there is the potential for 'hurricane amnesia,' ...," Gov. Bush told the Tampa Tribune during a hurricane briefing in May. No storms directly hit Florida or South Carolina in 2003. In fact, South Carolina has been spared a major disaster since 1989.
The good news for South Carolina is that the state is better prepared for a hurricane than it was five years ago. Unfortunately 2,800 of the state's 6,700 National Guard troops are on assignment because of the war on terrorism. Additionally, most of the equipment that would be used in the event of a natural disaster also has been taken along by the troops.
Since the major problems during evacuations because of the threat from Hurricane Floyd five years ago, transportation officials have prepared for lane reversals in communities from Hilton Head on the south to Little River on the North Carolina line. Last week officials said practice runs have gone well.
Hurricane Alex, which delivered a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks last week, offered an opportunity for emergency preparedness officials to review plans. The storms this week offer another opportunity for public officials and private citizens to take stock.
An increase in hurricane activity that began nine years ago is expected to continue through this year, according to William Gray, who heads a University of Colorado team known for its accurate predictions. Gray's prediction of an above-average chance of a hurricane making landfall this year was right on the mark. Gray's outlook predicts 12 to 15 tropical storms in the season, which ends Nov. 30. His earlier predictions were that six to eight of them would become hurricanes and two to four of them would become major storms.
A long-standing concern of state and federal officials is that coastal plain population is growing so fast that evacuation plans may not allow everyone to get out of harm's way before a storm strikes. That's the reason they make warnings earlier than ever.
A major problem, according to the forecasters and emergency agency directors, is that 72 hours before a storm makes landfall, they may not know precisely where it will hit; the five-day forecast is less accurate even though forecasting has improved in recent years. Storms could hit 250 miles or more either side of a designated point. Hurricanes Floyd, Dennis, Bertha and others are cases in point. All were projected for landfall in the vicinity of Beaufort 72 and 48 hours out. They went to North Carolina instead.
Demographers at the Strom Thurmond Institute of Government at Clemson University predicted five years ago that South Carolina would grow by 1 million people by 2025. Most of those people will live in the state's Coastal Plain.
Hurricane Floyd demonstrated that more people live on the coast than can be evacuated swiftly and safely. The evacuation for Floyd brought traffic to a standstill from north Florida to North Carolina as more than a million people crowded onto highways.
As has been said here before, hurricane preparedness requires more than a good evacuation plan.
Preparedness includes building landward of the water's edge to stay out of harm's way and preservation of wetlands to absorb the enormous amount of water that comes with hurricanes. A decade ago a flood of development encroached on the Great Swamp in southern Beaufort County. Preparation also requires new flood insurance plans as Congress has examined this year. Development patterns must be considered whenever the Federal Emergency Management Agency addresses hurricane preparedness.
Even the South Carolina legislature needs to get involved by passing legislation to preserve wetlands. Wetland preservation may not only help protect property, it would eliminate people living where they don't belong.
In the meantime, everyone needs to examine their own personal hurricane plan for their own security.