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reprint or license thisExperts: Storm the magnitude of Hazel would cripple area
By Tonya Root
The Sun News
The Grand Strand would never be the same if a storm the strength of 1954's Hurricane Hazel made landfall here again.
Hazel - a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in Little River on Oct. 15, 1954 - destroyed beach cottages, and the few hotels and attractions that were in the loosely populated area.
If such a storm hit today, said Jon Boettcher, South Carolina's chief of natural hazards plan, the wind damage alone in the area could cost near $3 billion.
"One word sums it up for damage in Myrtle Beach in 1954. It was significant," Boettcher said Tuesday during the 2006 state Hurricane/Emergency Management workshop at Kingston Plantation. "It virtually wrecked the community."
The same would hold true today. The area's tourism industry, a driving economic force, would take the hardest hit, followed by infrastructure and residential homes, Boettcher said.
"The mom and pop businesses may take a hit where it's just not feasible to rebuild if such a thing hit today," Boettcher said. "It could take a number of years to build Myrtle Beach back up if it does get built back up in the first place to pre-storm condition."
Boettcher used a computer program to model the cost and impact of wind damage in Horry County if Hazel hit today.
He said the wind damage would be $2.8 billion, and that estimate does not include damage from storm surge - which was recorded in 1954 at 15 feet in Little River - or the cost of evacuation, sheltering people, relocating residents and the economic loss for businesses.
"There will never be another storm like Hazel because every storm is different, but if a Hazel did come ashore now, it would be significant," Boettcher said.
Boettcher also noted that because the 50-mile-in-diameter eye made landfall in Little River, most of Horry County received wind damage from the left or backside of the storm, which is not as powerful as the right side.
He said the area might have been completely destroyed if the storm had made landfall in Georgetown, with its most powerful winds impacting the Grand Strand.
Horry County Emergency Management Director Randy Webster, who listened to Boettcher's presentation, said he had run such a model before and knew a storm like Hazel would devastate the area.
"It's mind-boggling to think how much damage there could be looking at past storms and relating them to now," Webster said.
"The damage could be tremendous, and those who take precautions and get prepared would fare much better after the storm," he said.
The chance a storm could hit the area is statistically high because South Carolina has not been affected by a hurricane making direct landfall for several years, officials said.
Residents should make plans now regarding how they will react to a storm headed for the area and how they will survive after it has passed, Webster said.
"If we take such a hit with this type of storm and devastation ... it will take years to replace and rebuild," Webster said.
"Citizens need to be prepared for that. The whole issue of preparedness starts at home with individuals taking action."
Horry County's 1954 population was 59,820 versus 216,600 recorded during the 2003 U.S. Census update. For area towns, the population in 1954 versus 2003 were: Aynor 551, 589; Conway 6,073, 12,538; and Loris 1,614, 2,192.
Hazel was one of two major storms during the 1954 Atlantic hurricane season, which had 11 named storms and eight hurricanes. It was considered an average season.
Source: Jon Boettcher, South Carolina's chief of natural hazards plan
Contact TONYA ROOT at 248-2149 or troot@thesunnews.com
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