Sen. Graham’s
policy talk over a pint
By DAVID
BROOKS New York
Times
I spent much of last week talking with Republicans about Social
Security reform, but I didn’t expect to find myself salivating over
the phone. I was in a hotel room in St. Paul when I connected with
Sen. Lindsey Graham. As he spoke, I could hear Irish music in the
background. I could hear laughter and conviviality. It turned out
that he was calling me from a pub in Dublin.
I can’t tell you how much I wanted at that moment to be in an
Irish pub and possibly not even talking about entitlement reform.
But Graham was going on passionately about his bill.
Graham has campaigned in his home state, South Carolina, on the
need to reform Social Security and move to private accounts. “I’ve
had every demagogic ad you can think of run against me,” he said as
Guinness fantasies danced in my head.
Graham added that he would love to embrace the sort of bill that
his New Hampshire colleague John Sununu is proposing, which would
create private accounts and wouldn’t reduce benefits or raise taxes
to pay the transition costs. But like most smart Republicans I spoke
with this week, Graham realizes that you can’t pass a major
entitlement reform without significant Democratic support.
“If John can get Democratic support, count me in,” he was saying,
as a great roar of laughter arose from the pub behind him. But he
knows that most Republicans will never agree to a bill that balloons
the deficit and transforms a beloved program if it doesn’t have
bipartisan backing to give them political cover.
So Graham’s bill would raise payroll taxes on the affluent to
cover transition costs. This idea is going to be tough for many
Republicans, he said, but both parties have to cross some Rubicons.
He’s received some encouragement from senior Republicans and some
important, though so far private, support from Democrats.
This was the first time in my life I heard a person in a pub
talking about benefit index formulas, so it was an important
milestone on my descent into pathetic wonkery. But as Graham was
enthusing, I couldn’t help thinking about how the Social Security
reform debate might transform the culture in Washington.
Over the past few years, attention has focused on things, like
tax cuts, that can be pushed through with partisan majorities. But
in the second term, Bush’s top initiatives will require bipartisan
compromises while making divisions within the parties more
apparent.
Whether they like it or not, Republicans and Democrats are going
to have to meet privately in rooms and negotiate with each other.
They’re going to have to develop some level of trust so they can
make unpopular suggestions and know they won’t read about it in the
next day’s papers. They are going to have to compromise, reach a
deal and then stick together in the face of the special-interest
onslaught.
The Social Security issue changes the incentives. The rule is
compromise or fail. If the president is to avoid a debilitating
defeat, the atmosphere has to change.
In the past when it came time to build these sorts of grand
coalitions, we would have seen centrist deal-makers in the Howard
Baker mold rise to take the lead. But those centrist types are gone,
and now it will be up to realistic partisans like Graham, who, it
should be recalled, was one of the aggressive House managers during
the Clinton impeachment.
And indeed, during the past couple of weeks we’ve begun to see
that even in this polarized age, there are little green shoots of
what you might call a negotiating culture sprouting up. The White
House has been much more flexible in talking about the shared
sacrifices that will be required to make the system solvent.
Democrats have so far been given little inducement to take risks,
but even so, several important Democrats know that their party can’t
merely be the party of the status quo. They have to embrace some
kind of reform.
Maybe the context for old-fashioned coalition-building no longer
exists. There aren’t as many cross-party friendships as before, nor
as many master deal makers. But somehow we’re going to have to fix
Social Security so the baby boom generation doesn’t imprison its
children in a fortress of debt. We’re going to have to bring the
entitlement system into the era of longevity. And if this culture of
negotiation is to be recreated, I’m thinking of a pub — far away and
in a happy, happy place — where it just might start.
Reach Mr. Brooks at dabrooks@nytimes.com. |