Although U.S. Sen. John Edwards has described the Feb. 3
Democratic primary in South Carolina as essential to his
presidential hopes, S.C. voters hardly will see him between now and
the last few days of January.
Instead, he will devote almost all his efforts to Iowa and New
Hampshire, two states with earlier balloting where polls show his
support registering only in single digits.
“What’s really important now is that he do well enough in New
Hampshire and Iowa that he shows he can be a national candidate, and
then come back down here,” said Jennifer Palmieri, campaign
spokeswoman for the N.C. senator.
Three of Edwards’ rivals for the Democratic nomination will be in
South Carolina on Tuesday. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, U.S. Sen. Joe
Lieberman from Connecticut and ex-Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are
coming to several S.C. cities.
But after this week, one political expert said he does not expect
to see many candidates in South Carolina until at least Jan. 27, the
day New Hampshire votes.
“Iowa and New Hampshire will define the alternatives in South
Carolina,” said Don Fowler, a Columbia resident and former national
Democratic Party chairman. “If you don’t do well in either of those
two states, you’re dead here.”
Edwards, a Seneca native, wrapped up a weekend campaign tour of
South Carolina on Sunday with a short speech from the pulpit of a
black church in downtown Columbia, the Sidney Park Christian
Methodist Episcopal Church.
Saturday, he signed copies of his book, “Four Trials,” in a
Charleston bookstore and addressed a Democratic crowd in Brown’s
Bar-B-Que restaurant in Kingstree.
Edwards also spoke to sign-waving supporters in front of state
Democratic headquarters in Columbia, where he filed papers formally
declaring his candidacy.
In most of his weekend appearances, Edwards leaned heavily on his
basic stump speech, bashing President Bush for not caring about
ordinary working people and ending with his belief that “the son of
a mill worker can actually beat the son of a president.”
In Kingstree, Edwards also pledged help for “the forgotten
America.” The Pee Dee is a belt of perennially depressed former
plantation counties that have failed to share in the economic boom
of much of the rest of South Carolina.
Drawing on his roots in tiny Robbins, N.C., where he grew up,
Edwards said, “I understand the struggles and the worry that Pee Dee
residents are facing day in and day out because I lived it. This
isn’t just where I’m from. It’s who I am.”
Edwards is in Iowa today, where his schedule calls for him to
spend 12 of the 21 days remaining before the Jan. 19 caucuses. He
will be in New Hampshire for seven days. Over the next 3½ weeks, he
is scheduled to be in South Carolina for only part of one day, Jan.
7. A location has not yet been announced.
Edwards has made a central theme of his campaign that it is going
to take a Southerner to win Southern states against President Bush.
He repeatedly has said he must win South Carolina in the primary or
quit the race.
To that end, he has made 16 visits to the state this year and
spent about $800,000 here — the most time and money of any of the
nine Democrats running.
Political observers say Edwards’ grass-roots organization,
anchored by a wide network of local Democratic elected officials and
party officers, is the best in the state.
That organization was evident Saturday, when enthusiastic crowds
of about 100 turned out both in Kingstree and at state Democratic
Party headquarters to hear Edwards. Democratic candidate events so
far this year have rarely had turnouts of more than 50 or 60 —
evidence, party leaders say, that voters have not yet begun to pay
attention.
But Edwards has failed to open up the kind of dramatic lead in
South Carolina that Dean has in New Hampshire. Even in the S.C.
polls most favorable to Edwards, his lead is within the polls’
margin of error.
Other polls show him running as far back as third place. All the
polls show the greatest number of likely S.C. voters still have not
chosen a candidate.
Former S.C. Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian, who is
not backing any candidate, said it is possible that Edwards’ prior
investment in South Carolina will still pay off.
“If the story that comes out of New Hampshire is that Dean gets
60 percent of the vote, then there’s no way to stop him here,”
Harpootlian said.
“If, on the other hand, the story out of New Hampshire is that
Edwards or Clark runs second, then I think Edwards is in great
shape,” Harpootlian said.
“I can guaran-damn-tee you that 60 percent of the people who will
vote on Feb. 3 haven’t made up their minds, and of the remaining 40
percent, half of them are very soft.”