Can Edwards continue improving his odds?

January 20, 2004

"Local boy makes good ? showing" might be an appropriate headline for the Iowa caucus results, after John Edwards, Seneca native and senator from neighboring North Carolina posted a surprise second in the Midwest race that traditionally has helped predict the eventual nominee.

Sen. John Kerry’s move to the head of the pack, with more than twice the delegates of the pre-Iowa favorite Howard Dean, was even more of a surprise. A campaign that was floundering a couple weeks ago surged to the forefront, with both Johns beating out Dean, the man so many thought would take it all away.

What Dean’s distant third may mean is twofold:

-Maybe a message circulated through the Internet isn’t as effective as what the people actually hear when they’re paying attention. (And having more than one issue might resonate better.)

-Absolutely nothing at all. (Although we’d like it if it presents at least a hint that yelling a lot is not the way to go about running a country.)

In truth, we were glad to see Edwards do so well, and not just because he’s local. Of the original candidates that began the quest a few months ago, Edwards has made the most dramatic statement, despite his relative brief life in politics. In short, he’s more than just a pretty face and people are finally realizing it.

When Edwards visited his birthplace of Seneca last summer, it was almost as if the people came out to see and hear him strictly because he was the hometown boy. There wasn’t a lot concrete in his statements, although the sentiments of positive change for education, employment and quality of life always ring true with voters.

But now people in the Midwest seem to be listening. We’ll see next week if that carries over into New England or the home-field advantage helps Howard Dean regain his lead.

At any rate, the one most of us here are looking forward to is the Feb. 3 first-in-the-south primary. (We like being No. 1 at something other than highway fatality and domestic violence statistics.) If Kerry and Edwards duplicate their Iowa showings (or more likely, reverse them once they get to the Palmetto State), it could all come down to these two, regardless of what happens in New Hampshire.

Kerry’s background, however, including heroic service in Vietnam and a later very public stance against the war (and against the current one as well) may be the deciding factor in many minds. He’s a man with just a bit more experience in the real world and real-world issues than Edwards. He’s also a veteran of the political scene, which could work either way. But the latter’s advantage is actually living in that real world, working his way through college, the son of a mill worker and a postal employee, and managing through hard work to live the great American dream — making money and a lot of it. (His law practice has consisted mostly of cases won against corporations in consumer issues.)

Despite his wealth, Edwards still seems an ordinary guy in most respects. Both he and Kerry have lost a child and known heartache of such a personal nature little (if anything) compares. There’s something to be said for a candidate who understands the uncertainty of life. And while Kerry evokes the memory of the Kennedys with his tendency to dream, Edwards has a natural optimism of one who doesn’t mind admitting he believes in the essential goodness of man and trusts the ordinary voter to send him to Washington.

Edwards simply has more charisma than Kerry and if he stays on the path he’s on at present, the Carolina boy could be the party’s choice. It wouldn’t be the first time charm played in a political race. That’s not a bad concept, if the candidate has the gumption to back it up — and Edwards has proven that with his own life story.

Richard Gephardt has ended more than 30 years on the political scene and dropped out of the race, following Carol Moseley Braun last week. Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Rev. Al Sharpton are hanging in there but Lieberman, Kucinich and Sharpton all scored zero in the Iowa numbers; New Hampshire may see a few more headed for the wayside. Clark pulled in three delegates but they pale, and mightily so, beside the two front-runners. Clark’s strongest point with many voters will be his military experience. But one’s view of the current war may not be as important as Howard Dean once thought, as he made his stance the central focus of campaigning.

Of course, this is just the first blast from the campaign trumpet and while a few more candidates will be muted by the time New Hampshire is over, there’s still a few notes left to play before the Democratic candidate is decided. After all, in America, even a peanut farmer can become president. The process is more than anything else a constant surprise.

Copyright 2004, Anderson Independent Mail. All Rights Reserved.