Republicans think this is the year they'll finally knock off, electorally speaking, Democratic U.S. Rep. John Spratt Jr.

They've thought that before.

The latest champion is state Rep. Ralph Norman, a 52-year-old Rock Hill developer who's just over halfway through his first-ever legislative term.

The Bush White House is anxious to add Norman to its Washington roster, indicated by Vice President Dick Cheney's Friday appearance on his behalf at a $250 late morning fundraiser. Yes, $250. Deflation seems to be hitting veep events.

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Both of South Carolina's Republican senators, Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint, plus Gov. Mark Sanford, warmly endorsed Norman late last year, glossing over the fact that he had a primary opponent. At least he did until Wednesday, when politically unknown Park Gillespie, a former teacher from Clover, checked the handwriting on the wall and dropped out.

Republican interest is twofold.

Aside from the out-of-reach majority black, majority Democratic 6th District of Jim Clyburn, Spratt, state Treasurer Grady Patterson and the open state education superintendent's seat are last obstacles to total Republican dominance of South Carolina government and politics.

That may be of greater interest to in-state Republicans.

Higher stakes

Washington is playing for higher stakes.

With 2006 shaping up as a potentially grim year for the GOP's tenuous 12-year grip on its House majority, Republican strategists are looking to cut their losses by cherry-picking a Democrat or two in districts trending their way. They've put Spratt in their crosshairs.

Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political science professor, figures Norman and the 5th District meet a perceived Republican need.

"If you might lose seats, you think to yourself, 'Where are some places we might pick up some as a counterbalance?' So, you look around for a conservative region with a Democratic incumbent where we might poach," he said.

In one sense, the 5th meets the criteria.

Its bigger counties bordering metro Charlotte and the Upstate are Republican-oriented. Booming York grows by the week with Republican cadres fleeing or avoiding Charlotte's sprawl and taxes.

The smaller, poorer Pee Dee counties, many with declining populations, are one of the few remaining Democratic bastions.

The glitch for Republicans has been that the resilient Spratt, a known quantity around the 5th, has been able to cut across party lines enough to win election after election in a district that many on both sides expect to go Republican when he leaves the scene.

A Garin Hart Yang Research poll conducted last month for Spratt gave him a 61-21 edge over Norman among the 406 likely district voters surveyed. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

And that's with a voting record that The Almanac of American Politics describes as "moderate, a bit to the left of the middle of the House."

'Strongest' challenger

Scott Malyerck, executive director of the state GOP, hails Norman as the best-funded and also "the strongest candidate we've ever had."

To Malyerck, that translates into the ability to get the party's "conservative message out more consistently to more voters ... to let voters know that while John Spratt acts like a conservative in South Carolina, in Washington he votes like a California liberal."

Republicans shouldn't get their hopes up too much, because Huffmon sees a tough road for Norman.

"Ralph Norman is well known in this part of the district, but that's less true in the rest of the district. Compounding that is this is the worst part of the district for Spratt, meaning he is strongest where Norman is least known and really needs to pull votes from Spratt.

Spratt has the financial edge.

He entered the election year with $736,272 in cash on hand, compared to $404,013 for Norman. Gillespie had $24,733.

It's been a dozen years since Spratt had a close call -- and took an opponent for granted.

Spratt, 63 and in his 12th term, is the senior Democrat on the Budget Committee and assistant to Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California.

The association with the outspoken West Coast liberal is one that Republicans will try to exploit, playing it off against President Bush's perceived popularity. Pelosi has called Bush an "incompetent leader" with "no judgment."

Huffmon said that portraying Spratt -- who has a reputation for fighting doggedly for the district -- as a California-style liberal may be a tough sell.

The well-connected Spratt, one of the more insightful members of either House or Senate, is a banker-lawyer by training with tentacles into Charlotte's financial suites, and degrees from Davidson College, Oxford and Yale.

Close call

In 1994, an election remembered for the GOP's near-sweep at the state level and capture of the 3rd Congressional District for the first time in a century, Rock Hill businessman Larry Bigham took Spratt to the wire. Spratt pulled it out, 52-48. It was a lesson for Spratt, one that has paid off since.

Two years later, Bigham managed only 45 percent.

Republican Mike Burkhold took only 40 percent in 1998 and Carl Gullick just a shade more in 2000. The GOP gave Spratt a pass in 2002 but tried again in 2004. Spratt won 63 percent against Albert Spencer.

How do you beat a guy who got more than six of every 10 votes last time out?

Warren Tompkins, a Republican political consultant, said you combine hard work, enough money to buy the Charlotte television market, develop a strong grass-roots organization and appeal to South Carolina values.

"Then you've got a fighting chance."

Election signs

Gov. Mark Sanford must be serious about planning to run for re-election.