ELECTION 2006 | THE LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR RACE

How voters regard Bauer could decide GOP winner

Incumbent’s run-ins with law could give challengers edge as personality, politics play part in election

By AARON GOULD SHEININ

asheinin@thestate.com

The race for the Republican lieutenant governor’s nomination is likely to be decided by whether voters forgive the incumbent’s public missteps.

That’s particularly true in coastal areas like Horry County, where Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer racked up huge margins in winning four years ago.

When it was revealed in March that Bauer was stopped for driving more than 100 mph on Interstate 77 a month earlier, referred to himself as “SC 2” in an effort to call off state troopers and was not ticketed — Bauer’s behavior became the focal point of the race, political experts said.

Still, the other GOP candidates, Richland County businessman Mike Campbell and Anderson physician Henry Jordan, must show voters they are viable alternatives.

Whomever emerges from the June 13 primary and a potential runoff two weeks later will face Democrat Robert Barber of Charleston in November. Barber is unopposed for his party’s nomination.

The problem for all the candidates, but especially Bauer, is that voters tend not to view any lieutenant governor’s campaign as being one of ideas, said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon.

“It’s not the kind of race where people do so-called ‘rationale voting,’ to see who’s agenda you’re closer to,” Huffmon said.

Despite the candidate’s efforts to carve out policy niches, the position comes with little power to directly influence public policy. So while Bauer, Campbell and Jordan all have agendas to promote, the election could become more about personalities and politics.

TIME IN THE JOB

For Bauer, that means emphasizing his incumbency and his record of making a difference whenever he can. Bauer, 37, declined to comment for this story.

But Rod Shealy, Bauer’s campaign consultant, said, “We’re pumping on the fact that he’s making a difference, that he’s getting things done, probably more so than any other lieutenant governor.”

Still, Shealy knows his candidate’s lead-foot past will continue to be an issue.

Since 1997, Bauer has had two accidents, four tickets and one suspended license for failure to pay a ticket.

Shealy said the media’s focus on Bauer’s driving problems have hurt his candidacy.

“Had it not been for the intense media coverage regarding him driving too fast, he would have been easily re-elected,” Shealy said. “If the election is based on qualifications or record, he will win — easily. If the election is based on other items, then it creates a challenge.”

REVVING IT UP

Campbell would appear gain the most from Bauer’s missteps.

Jordan, who has lost three previous bids for public office, was a late entry into the race and is far behind in terms of campaign fundraising.

Thus far, Campbell might be best known as the youngest son of former congressman and Gov. Carroll Campbell, a Republican icon in South Carolina.

But that, too, comes with its own set of issues, said Chip Felkel, a Republican Party activist and consultant.

Mike Campbell “had to prove to everyone that he was more than just Carroll Campbell’s son,” Felkel said. “He had to show himself as articulate on the issue and had a good grasp of certain things.”

The old “Campbell Machine” that elected the family patriarch to the U.S. House and two terms in the Governor’s Mansion “has not been in existence for 11 years,” Felkel said. As a result, Mike Campbell cannot count on his father’s former team to deliver him into office.

Campbell “also needed a break, and what he needed was a break from Bauer. He got that,” Felkel said. “Bauer has become a parody, a caricature of himself.”

Yet, Felkel said, Campbell has not taken full advantage of the gift from Bauer. “I haven’t seen any hard evidence that Mike has himself capitalized on Bauer’s mishaps.”

Doing so is risky, Huffmon said. “You want to think Bauer has completely shot himself in the foot, but to keep this in the mind of voters, you have to walk a fine line to remind people about it without seeming to run a dirty-tricks campaign,” he said.

Campbell said Bauer’s problems will not distract him.

“Obviously, it doesn’t bode well for (Bauer),” Campbell said. “However, I’ve made an extra effort to stay on focus and stay on what we’re talking about. But even before all this came about, we were already seeing the trend of people wanting a change there.”

FROM THE RIGHT

Jordan decided to run the day before the Bauer story broke.

“Some people think I jumped in just because Andre is in trouble,” Jordan said, adding that’s not the case. “If he didn’t have this trouble, the possibility of beating him would be remote. Possible, but remote.”

Jordan also faces obstacles to victory. While Campbell and Bauer each have more than $600,000 in their election accounts, Jordan is just beginning to raise money. He hopes to raise up to $250,000 before the June 13 primary.

Then, there are Jordan’s own public controversies. In 1997, while a member of the state Board of Education, Jordan said, “Screw the Buddhists and kill the Muslims. And put that in the minutes,” during debate over allowing schools to display the Ten Commandments.

The comment has dogged Jordan since. Asked how his statements would affect his candidacy, Jordan said he would only respond by reading a prepared statement.

“That was almost a decade ago,” Jordan read. “I met with 30 Muslim clerics. We had dinner. We discussed this for three hours. I issued an apology and they accepted it. And as far as I’m concerned, it’s a closed issue.”

Felkel and Huffmon are not sure what impact, if any, Jordan will have on the election. At most, they predict, he could pull enough votes to force a runoff between Bauer and Campbell.

If no single candidate gets a majority vote, the top two vote-getters square off two weeks later.

COASTAL VOTE

Geography could also play a role in the primary.

Campbell expects his geographic base to be the Upstate. He was born in Greenville, as was his father.

But Jordan is also from the Upstate, which is home to more Christian evangelicals than any other part of the state. Those religious voters could favor Jordan over Campbell and Bauer.

For Bauer, the coast could make or break his campaign, as it did in 2002.

In the Republican primary runoff in 2002, Bauer beat Sen. David Thomas of Greenville by 4,491 votes out of nearly 300,000 cast. Bauer won Horry County by 4,582 votes, gathering more than two-thirds of the vote.

Although Bauer lost his home area, the Midlands, and the Senate district he represented then, he offset that by dominating the coast.

Now that the lieutenant governor’s job includes the Office on Aging, Bauer could benefit from the high population of seniors and retirees along the coast.

“No question, the coast is a strength for him,” Shealy said of Bauer. “Our state has an in-migration of senior citizens. Particularly in a Republican primary, senior citizens are going to seriously dominate voter turnout.”

Robert Rabon, chairman of the Horry County Republican Party, said seniors there “are a pretty forgiving group, and I think Andre will do pretty well here. We have a large contingent of retirees here and Andre has done a ton of good for them, and they won’t forget it.”

But Bauer has to hope voters everywhere forget — or forgive — his interstate embarrassments, Huffmon said.

“Andre Bauer embarrassed himself,” Huffmon said, “no two ways about it. Are voters still going to have that in their mind?”

Reach Gould Sheinin at (803) 771-8658.