Local exit poll gives some insight on the issues important to Aiken

By ROB NOVIT Senior writer

The issue of war and terrorism was a major factor in President Bush's lopsided advantage over Democratic challenger John Kerry, but not as much as partisanship, a USC Aiken exit poll suggests.

"If not for the war issue, it would be something else," said Dr. Bob Botsch, a USCA political science professor who coordinated the exit poll efforts of his students Nov. 2.

Republican Congressman Jim DeMint, whose margin over Democrat Inez Tenenbaum was nearly as large, benefited by partisanship and by tying himself closely to Bush as his teammate.

"The partisanship has been that way since the early 1990s," said Botsch. "The only hope for the Democrats would be a colossal screw-up by the Republicans or if the Democrats nominated an incredibly attractive candidate. That's not likely."

Botsch's research methods students interviewed 649 Aiken County voters, and the countywide results demonstrated their sample was accurate, he said.

About 55 percent of those polled identified themselves as Republicans, up four percent from the 2000 election. Democrats remained at 32 percent. Not surprisingly, half the poll participants identified themselves as conservative, compared to one-fourth as in the middle and about one in five identifying themselves as liberal.

About 36 percent declared the war on terrorism or the war in Iraq as the most important issue, followed by character in terms of strength or honesty. Those voters went for Bush in much larger numbers. The 11 percent who mentioned the economy, jobs or the federal deficit favored Kerry.

The national exit surveys, which came under a lot of scrutiny and criticism, reported in part that 22 percent of voters considered "values" as the most important issue. Botsch said they reached that conclusion by a "closed-ended" question, and this was interpreted by journalists as suggesting that gay marriage and abortion were those values.

The USCA students asked an open-ended question, asking voters their opinion on the most important issue. Only five percent mentioned abortion or gay marriage.

"But the national exit polls did get a bum rap," said Botsch. "What those polls cannot tell you is a high turnout. Some early information got leaked that shouldn't have been. In the final analysis, they had it right."

During the Senate campaign, DeMint generated plenty of controversy by declaring that gays and single mothers should not be allowed to teach in schools. The USCA pollsters asked voters specifically about his statement on single mothers. Nearly 60 percent of the voters disagreed with his position, and another 20 percent had mixed feelings. But his statement didn't cost DeMint many votes.

Botsch agreed that the presidential campaign generated a lot of anger and animosity, but not in his opinion as much as in 1968 and 1972. Such hostility, along with a close election, can generate a large turnout.

"But the election was not as close as people thought it would be," said Botsch. "Also, going against conventional wisdom, the negative advertising didn't reduce the turnout. It worked well for both sides, and they'll do it until it stops working."

Contact Rob Novit at rnovit@aikenstandard.com.

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