SUMTER, S.C. - South Carolina officials are scrambling to keep Shaw Air Force Base out of target range as the Pentagon draws up its largest-ever base closure list for 2005.

If Shaw is slated for closure, the loss of some 6,800 civilian and military jobs and the base's $230 million annual payroll would deal a knockout blow to the heart of this economically strapped state, says Gov. Mark Sanford.

"I'd trade nearly anything off to protect Shaw because - unlike other parts of South Carolina - if Shaw goes, you're talking a cataclysmic economic event in Sumter County," Sanford said in a recent AP interview. "Shaw is in a dangerous spot."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said he would like to see about a fourth of the military's more than 400 installations shut down to help streamline the military and shift scarce dollars from supporting surplus real estate to new weapons and other uses.

Also, the Air Force is looking at a plan to reduce the number of fighter jets, which could put Shaw in jeopardy, said defense analyst Loren Thompson with the Lexington Institute think tank in Arlington, Va.

Shaw is home to the 20th Fighter Wing, which is composed of three F-16CJ fighter squadrons. The aircraft were on the forefront of the recent conflict in Iraq, but they could be shifted to other sites.

"There are a number of bases in the Southeast that are capable of hosting those fighting forces," Thompson said.

Shaw is headquarters for the 9th Air Force and the U.S. Central Command Air Forces, units that played key roles in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, hundreds of servicemen and women in those units worked out of an air base in Saudi Arabia during those conflicts, evidence they could be based nearly anywhere in this age of high-tech computers and communications.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said he is making the argument that Shaw, its aircraft and its personnel are vital to the defense of the nation in the 21st century - the primary criterion the Pentagon is supposed to use in deciding whether an installation should stay or go.

"I make the case for bases in South Carolina on their military merit alone," Graham said. "The past performance of these bases during recent conflicts shows they deserve continued use. They are indispensable to our defense."

He said Shaw offers high-quality training ranges for pilots and is not challenged by encroaching suburban growth like some bases along the East Coast.

Those points that will work in Shaw's favor, Thompson said, adding that it is possible the Air Force could shift aircraft to Shaw from other locations.

Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Tom Olsen, executive director of the Sumter Base Defense Committee, said the community "desperately wants to retain all that military presence" in central South Carolina.

Of the 106,000 people in the county, he said about 25,000 "depend upon Shaw in some form or another" for their livelihood.

The 5,600 active duty men and women connected with the base have about 12,000 family members. Sixty percent of those military families "choose to live in the local community," said Olsen, himself a former Shaw commander.

There are about 2,000 civilians in the county who work at Shaw, making it "a big source of employment for the local economy," said Grier Blackwelder of the Sumter City Chamber of Commerce.

Blackwelder said the community has some diversified industries including the local Caterpillar plant, three furniture companies, a maker of pharmaceutical supplies and several tool and automotive parts plants.

But the questions about Shaw's future inject "a feeling of uncertainty" into the community, he said.

Across the state, the military conducts $5.6 billion in sales with South Carolina businesses, according to a recent study conducted by Donald Schunk of the University of South Carolina. Shaw contributes $261 million annually to that number, Schunk found.

While the governor voiced concern about the negative effect of a Shaw closure within the state, he argued it would add to federal red ink as well. A closure "`would cause unemployment to go up, a whole variety of social welfare (costs) to go up," Sanford said.

And compared with the Charleston or Beaufort areas where other military bases are located, "there are no other economic cylinders" that could help the Midlands region rebound from a Shaw closure, Sanford said.

"The economic impact of a closure would be devastating, but we can't make the argument for Shaw based on economic welfare to the state. I argue that Shaw is vital to the vision of our nation's military in the coming century," said Graham, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

He said he called Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. John Jumper, the No. 1 general in the Air Force who was once based at Shaw, and Secretary John Roche, the Air Force's top civilian, to his office to make that case. "I can assure you, they know how I feel," Graham said.