There's a growing sense among some political operatives in South Carolina's Republican Party that too many of its most stalwart voters are in a funk.

Katon Dawson is not the cheeriest of Republican state chairmen these days.

"Morale is low," he said. "I will not deny that." He spoke of a "dangerous political climate for us."

Some of it stems from President Bush's declining approval ratings, some of it is issues and candidates that haven't grabbed voters, and some of it is frustration over the war in Iraq, gas prices and perceived excessive spending by the GOP's congressional majority, party leaders say.

Advertisement

"As I travel around the state, there just seems to be a level of disengagement this time around that I haven't seen in past primaries," said Mike Campbell, who is challenging incumbent Andre Bauer. "For some reason, there just seems to be a lack of interest up and down the board."

To Hollis "Chip" Felkel, a Greenville political consultant-corporate adviser, "Here we are, the 18th of May, and you're just now seeing (candidates) going up on television. That may be good politics, good use of their budget money, but it also tells me people are not really engaged."

"I'm seeing exactly the same thing," Dawson said.

For some, it's a matter of unfulfilled expectations.

Edwin Feulner, president of Washington's Heritage Foundation, an organization as staunchly Republican in its ideals as it is conservative, wrote in a recent letter, "We've now had a Republican majority in Congress long enough to expect far greater progress on the agenda the GOP majority was elected to pass.

"Instead, we have a federal spending spree that outranks all others," he said.

Republican Gov. Mark Sanford, in terms of the congressional midterm elections, said, "People are very upset over, quite simply, about people not doing what they said they were going to do. At least, to a degree, there's that belief or perception."

Warren Mowry, a former Greenville County Republican chairman, said, "This is as under-the-radar as any (primary election) I can recall."

He's worried about "pride and complacency" among state Republicans. "And those go before the fall," Mowry said.

Gas prices are contributing to voters' malevolent mood, and immigration frustration is alienating the GOP's conservative base, the GOP's Dawson said.

Closer to home, he warned that if the GOP-controlled state Legislature heads home without property tax relief while spending more than $1 billion in new revenue, look out.

"There are expectations from the voters, especially Republican conservatives that I e-mail with and talk to every day. The expectation level is that we're in charge, there are budget surplus levels like the '90s," he said.

He expressed concern that legislators wouldn't agree to suspend the gas tax.

"If we don't give some of that money back, shame on us," Dawson said. "If they punish us, I don't blame them."

Alexandria-based Republican pollster Whit Ayres said he's finding "spending, Iraq and illegal immigration are the culprits."

Nationally, sentiment increasingly has swung to the Democrats, some polls suggest.

The Rasmussen Report, in a generic congressional preference poll conducted after President Bush's Monday night speech on immigration, found 48 percent of the respondents said they would vote for a Democrat, 33 percent for a Republican. Other polls reflect similar figures.

Among conservatives, the GOP's backbone, only 52 percent said they would vote Republican, Rasmussen reported.

In South Carolina, long touted by Republicans as "Bush Country," SurveyUSA's poll conducted May 12-14 showed Bush with a 35 percent approval rating, barely above the 33 percent nationwide figure reported by The Washington Post/ABC News Poll last week.

Lachlan McIntosh, executive director of the state Democratic Party, , said, "Obviously, turnout is a big factor in non-presidential-year elections, and the party whose base of support is most excited usually wins. Republican voters don't seem to have very much to be excited about."

Jeff Willis of Easley, one of four Republicans running for the GOP's state treasurer nomination in the June 13 primary, isn't detecting much interest among Republicans about voting.

Rod Shealy, a Lexington-based GOP consultant who is the strategist for Oscar Lovelace's primary challenge to Sanford, said, "It's hard to determine why there seems to be a lack of voter interest, but there clearly is a lack of voter interest."

He attributes it to an incumbent governor running for re-election.

"The top of the ticket drives turnout," Shealy said, predicting a low primary turnout.

Citing 9 percent turnout in 1998 when incumbent Republican Gov. David Beasley was challenged for renomination as a low point and 1994 when the seat was open and turnout was 19 to 20 percent, Shealy said the difference was "people knew they were going to elect the next governor. An incumbent running for re-election generally drives turnout down."

Voters who are upset or feel they have a grievance are more likely to show up on primary day, Shealy and Felkel said.

Gas prices, lobbyist scandals and dashed hopes that a Republican congressional majority would complete the conservative agenda are part of the mix, said Dave Woodard, a Clemson University political science professor and GOP consultant.

"They've shown themselves in Washington to be incapable of governing in terms of accomplishing Republican legislative goals," he said.

Despite the trickle-down impact on grass-roots activists back home, Woodard said, "It's too early to jump ship. Things can turn around in the fall. But they're going to have to do something quick to inspire grass-roots allegiance."

Danielle Vinson, a Furman professor who specializes in political communication, said any malaise will affect the fall vote more than the primaries.

"If voters stay home because they don't like Republicans or they go vote for Democrats or other parties because they don't like how things are going under the Republicans' leadership, then there is the potential for some Republicans, even incumbents, to lose unexpectedly."

Campbell, who's opposing Bauer, another Shealy candidate, attributed the situation to national concerns, frustration over immigration and worries over high gas prices.

"There's a trickle-down effect" from those issues, he said, that combined with the "lack of a hotly contested top-ballot race that factors in. I hope they get interested, but right now, it's a different climate."