Edwards must show he can win outside the South

John Edwards chose to stake his Democratic presidential bid on South Carolina, and it paid off.

It kept his campaign alive for a least another week.

Now comes the tough part — showing that he is a viable candidate outside Dixie.

It will not be easy.

Yankeeland is generally unfriendly territory for Southern candidates, noted Charles Dunn, a political scientist at Grove City College in Pennsylvania.

“Edwards has his work cut out for him,” he said.

His chief rival is U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, the current front-runner, who has demonstrated considerable strength and vote-getting ability in states outside the South.

“I think it is important for Edwards to show what he can do beyond the South,” said Jack Fleer, professor emeritus of political science at Wake Forest University. “It presents him with a major challenge.”

The victory gives Edwards momentum heading into the primaries next week. And, more importantly, it allows him to raise more money so he can be competitive in those contests.

Edwards, a North Carolina senator born in Seneca, S.C., said he’s geared up and ready.

“I’ll be the nominee,” he boldly predicted.

The Democratic race for the White House has essentially developed into a two-man race between Edwards and Kerry.

“It’s a head-to-head contest on who can compete in the South, who can win rural voters and who can do well with African-American voters. The South Carolina primary results showed that,” Edwards said.

The Tar Heel has consistently said Democrats must win states in the South if they hope to recapture the White House.

Kerry has yet to prove he can win in the South.

Edwards clobbered Kerry in South Carolina, winning 45 percent of the vote to 28 percent for Kerry. They virtually split the black vote, 36 percent for Edwards to 32 percent for Kerry. Edwards was the overwhelming choice of independents, winning 50 percent of the all-important swing vote. He also won the moderate vote, 49 percent to 27 percent for Kerry.

With Tuesday’s convincing victory in South Carolina’s first-in-the-South primary under his belt, Edwards now heads to friendly territory, Tennessee and Virginia, which hold primaries next Tuesday.

Edwards is hoping his impressive South Carolina win will raise questions about Kerry’s strength.

Asked if he could catch up to Kerry after a win in the Palmetto State, the senator said, “It’s not a matter of catching. We have a long nominating process.”

Each candidate claims to be the only one capable of defeating President Bush in the fall. Edwards got a boost this week when a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll had Edwards edging Bush 49-48 percent. Kerry would defeat Bush 53-46 percent.

“I am the only Democratic presidential candidate in the field who has a proven record of being able to win the type of tough states Democrats will need to win in the general election,” Edwards asserted.

Edwards has to be seen as the most likely candidate to get into a one-on-one with Kerry, Fleer said.

With his populist appeal, Wisconsin “is one place where Edwards could break out” and draw the attention of Northern voters, Fleer suggested.

“Edwards has to show that he not only can run well in the South, but he must demonstrate that he can pick up victories elsewhere,” said Clemson University analyst Bruce Ransom.

“He must get lucky somewhere.”

Experts don’t hold out much hope for Edwards, however. They say the cards are stacked against him.

“I don’t see him being able to put any groups together outside the South,” said Furman University professor Don Aiesi. “What are we talking about? Irish Catholics, unions, various ethnic groups. ... Unless there is a charismatic outburst for Edwards, I don’t see it.”

Kerry is still the favorite for the nomination, Dunn said. “He’s been around longer. His ties to the party are well-established over many years. Winners usually have been around a long time. Advantage, Kerry.”

“Kerry is in the front seat,” Ransom said.