Lisa Hauff seems overwhelmed.

As the mother of two girls, one entering Francis Marion University this fall, Hauff expects to spend about $2,000 more for school supplies than last year.

As South Carolina’s sixth annual sales tax holiday weekend approaches, experts disagree whether budget-minded shoppers will follow Hauff’s lead.

The S.C. Board of Economic Advisors estimates $5.1 million in taxpayer savings over the three-day weekend, Aug. 5 through 7. That’s a $300,000 increase from last year’s prediction.

But a report by the National Retail Federation forecasts an 8.2 percent drop in back-to-school spending.

The federal report says spending in the South on back-to-school shopping will decrease by about 19 percent, from $535.53 per family with school-age children last year to $434.09 this year.

Robert Martin, an economist for the S.C. Board of Economic Advisors, said the board’s prediction has gone up based on the added items to the tax-exempt list and the new 6 percent sales tax in Richland County, which is up a penny from last year.

Items added to the list include bath mats, bed linens, pillows, shower curtains and towels.

“This year, bed linens and towels have been added,” Martin said. “And that was by popular demand — because of all the kids going back to college.”

College spending has affected the prediction in other ways, too.

“A lot of the items that are on the list, like computers and computer software — a lot of colleges and universities are requiring more and more that the students pick up the tab,” Martin said. “So we’ve been adjusting for that.”

Hauff, of Columbia, said the only reason she’ll be shopping next weekend is to buy a computer for her daughter.

“I think (the holiday) is great for big things,” she said. “It’s not worth going to get notebook paper.”

Many shoppers agreed. They only plan to buy during the holiday if they need “big ticket” items.

“I have to figure out if what I would purchase is worth the savings,” said Denise Dunn, of Blythewood.

Last year, shoppers saved $2.7 million, far short of the board’s predicted $4.8 million. Martin said the shortcoming in spending was most likely because of the lackluster economy.

“People don’t have as much disposable income to spend,” he said.

Some shoppers, like Lashawn Shuler of Irmo, said that rather than buying school supplies during the sales tax break, she purchases them in advance from the school her children attend.

“It’s crowded,” she said. “Everyone’s in the store.”

Shuler paid $34 for a box offering everything her son, who attends Dutch Fork Elementary School, will need for the school year.

Kelly Baine, of Irmo, also purchased the back-to-school kit for her son, but said she’ll still be shopping during the sales tax holiday “just to save money.”

Reach Lopez at (803) 771-8597 or jrlopez@thestate.com