With the 2006 elections approaching, the South Carolina Democratic Party finds itself in a real fix.

It has no candidates, and Republicans are more and more the choice of state voters.

This is causing alarm among the party faithful, who are beginning to wonder whether the Democrats can recruit enough wannabes to fill out the 2006 ticket.

The hour is getting late.

All of this comes at a time when poll numbers show Democrats on the decline statewide.

“The Democrats are far away from where they ought to be to win a general election; it must be very demoralizing,” said Emory University political science professor Merle Black.

In 1976, an ironclad 80 percent of South Carolina voters favored Democrats, Black said.

Today, Republicans have seized a solid 44-36 percent that’s not going anywhere, he said, citing 2004 election exit polls.

The numbers present a major challenge for the party and its state chairman, Joe Erwin of Greenville, who is seeking a second two-year term. Democrats will vote on his candidacy at the state party convention April 23. He has no opposition.

“No one wants it,” he once joked.

The 2006 picture isn’t pretty.

Democrats have lost four of the last six governor’s races, six of eight constitutional offices, control of the state House and Senate, and six of the state’s eight congressional seats.

Erwin’s first task is to refurbish a depleted farm team, a must if the party is to regain political prominence in the state.

Right now, he is thinking small. He talks about recruiting candidates for school board, county council, city council, sheriff, and solicitor — government jobs that Democrats might have an easier chance of winning than, say, a statewide office like governor or U.S. Senate.

“We’re going to rebuild again,” Erwin vows, “knowing it’s going to be an uphill battle. We can’t be delusional about it.”

Democrats have been searching for a candidate for some time to challenge Republican Gov. Mark Sanford.

They’ve approached state senators Tommy Moore of Aiken and Yancey McGill of Kingstree.

Charleston Mayor Joe Riley was sounded out, but offered little encouragement.

Erwin isn’t giving up.

“I don’t concede anything, and we won’t concede anything,” he vowed in a recent interview.

The conventional wisdom is that Democrats must tap into a sizable white moderate vote to be competitive. These voters generally don’t identify with either party.

But Black’s polling data offers South Carolina Democrats little hope. He painted a bleak picture.

Exit poll numbers from last year’s general election showed 47 percent of white moderates identified themselves as Republicans, while only 17 percent said they were Democrats; 36 percent said they were independents.

“This creates a more liberal Democratic wing,” he said. And that makes it tougher for Democrats to win in South Carolina.

The experts agreed that the Democrats’ best — and only — hope may be a sharply divided and splintered Republican Party.

“They need a Republican Party in disarray in order to win,” Black said.

Winthrop University professor Scott Huffmon suggested Democrats might be able to attract Republican crossover voters by playing up the split between Sanford and Republican legislators in the General Assembly.

“If they tap into that, they may be able to win some of those crossovers,” he said.

Not all was a loss for the Democrats in the 2004 election. While President Bush’s coattails were helping statewide GOP candidates like DeMint, they lost their pull below the Senate race.

Democrats picked up a seat in the state House, one in the state Senate, a solicitor’s race, a sheriff’s contest and two Charleston County council seats.

“That shows real vitality,” said Erwin, looking for a ray of hope.

Those down-ballot victories make a case for focusing on the lesser races to rebuild the party, Erwin suggested.

“Look at it strategically,” he offered. “You can target better. You can recruit. And you can really focus your resources.”

Statewide, Republicans have a huge money advantage, making it virtually impossible for Democrats to win the big contests.

“So we will focus on smaller races,” Erwin said. “We have a great opportunity there. You just have to win.”

The rebuilding process could take anywhere from 10 to 25 years, Erwin said.

“We’ve got to start winning somewhere,” he said. “We’ve got to pick a place where we can win, build on that momentum, and create excitement.

“I’m not saying that we cannot win at a statewide level now. But almost anybody would have to say if we won at a statewide level it would be an upset.”

Erwin counseled Democrats not to lose faith.

“Republicans didn’t build their party in two years. It was more like a 25-year period,” he said.

Erwin warned that no matter how successful the Democrats are in rebuilding, they will never be able to match the Republicans.

But “we’ve got to step up to the plate,” he said. “If you do not compete, you cannot win, and we must compete with passion, enthusiasm and a belief that we can and will win — eventually.”

Reach Bandy at (803) 771-8648 or lbandy@thestate.com.