While opinion polls point to heavy Congressional Republican losses on Election Day -- possibly even handing the House majority to Democrats for the first time since 1994 -- a surprising consensus is emerging among some analysts: Adversity facing the GOP could actually work in Norman's favor.

"They are desperate to be on the offensive anywhere they can be," said David Wasserman of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "In most competitive races, they're on the defensive. I don't think Spratt is particularly vulnerable, but Republicans will pour money into the district to try to steal one."

The advantages Spratt enjoys are considerable. The 12-term congressman's name recognition is high across the sprawling 5th District, and the Republican-controlled White House and Congress are widely unpopular. Spratt started airing cable TV commercials two weeks ago, taking advantage of the 2-to-1 cash advantage he enjoys over Norman.

Spratt has easily won re-election in recent years, getting 63 percent of the vote in 2004 and 58 percent in 2000, the last two times he faced Republican opposition. This year, he's reminding supporters that he would be chairman of the powerful Budget Committee if Democrats take back the House.

The race has dropped off a list of the 40 most competitive House battles as ranked by University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. The nonpartisan Rothenburg Report recently moved it to the "Democratic favored" category.

But Republicans are counting on a handful of other factors.

· Two questions on the ballot in South Carolina are expected to galvanize the party base in a midterm election when turnout typically suffers. Social conservatives are energized by a proposed state constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, while fiscal conservatives are behind a property tax reassessment measure that would lessen bills for wealthy homeowners.

In Rock Hill, a local question on lifting the citywide ban on Sunday alcohol sales also could motivate conservatives.

· More importantly, GOP leaders think the 5th District is becoming increasingly Republican, thanks largely to affluent newcomers in northern York County, Lancaster County's panhandle and parts of Newberry, Cherokee and Kershaw counties. Those newcomers, Republicans say, have less familiarity with Spratt than longtime voters.

In Cherokee, for example, Sheriff Bill Blanton switched to the Republican Party earlier this year in what might be a sign of increasing GOP strength there. Spratt won Cherokee by 2,546 votes in 2004.

Laying the groundwork

A source close to Norman said a recent campaign poll showed the challenger significantly down, but higher than expected given his low name recognition. Norman stresses that he has focused so far on raising money behind the scenes, meaning he hasn't yet taken his message to voters through TV and public events.

"We've had to lay the groundwork in all the counties," Norman, 53, said last week. "When we spread our message, I'm very confident."

Norman and other Republicans have tried to tie Spratt to Nancy Pelosi, the liberal House minority leader from California.

Spratt, 63, insists Republicans are using the "same old playbook" that has failed for two decades.

"When I'm in Congress and decisions are made, I'll have a seat at the table," he told supporters during a barbecue lunch last month. "If Ralph is there, he'll be on a back bench."

While Norman, a second generation real estate developer from Rock Hill, has collected more money than any previous Spratt challenger, he still lags well behind. Spratt, who lives in York, raised nearly four times more cash during the quarter that ended June 30. The most recent filings show Spratt had about $1.5 million in cash on hand at the end of June, while Norman had about $734,000.

Norman has stayed mum about whether his fundraising will improve in the current quarter, except to say, "We will be happy with our fundraising."

Enough in the coffers?

Whether GOP leaders are similarly happy -- enough so to provide more money -- is one of the crucial questions in the race. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee said last month it plans to spend at least $1 million each on television advertising for Norman and two other GOP challengers in districts it considers vulnerable. However, those commitments can change depending on trends closer to the election.

Even if a disparity remains, Norman believes he will have enough money to employ a strategy that no other Spratt challenger has used: Buying into the expensive Charlotte TV market to reach the living rooms of crucial voters in Fort Mill and Rock Hill.

"He will be able to put his message out in a way that none of his opponents have been able to do in a number of recent cycles," said Ken Mehlman, chairman of the national Republican Party, in a July interview with The Herald. "It's a district where there's more than 20,000 new voters. If you can get on TV in Charlotte, you can be very competitive."

The paths to victory

Speaking to about 320 supporters packed into a ballroom at a luncheon fundraiser last week, Norman rolled out a line he is expected to use often on the campaign trail: "To change Congress means changing the congressman."

That theme fits into a broader strategy that has emerged in recent weeks as polls show ongoing dissatisfaction toward President George W. Bush and Republicans. In criticizing both parties for what he says are undisciplined spending habits, Norman is trying to position himself as an independent thinker capable of bringing new direction.

"Early on, Norman was showing himself as the darling of the White House," said political scientist Karen Kedrowski of Winthrop University. "Clearly, that wasn't a winning strategy. What this tells me is he wasn't getting anywhere with his other message. If this one doesn't work, he's got a problem because it'll start looking like he doesn't know what he's about."

The path to victory that Norman backers lay out is this: Keep it close in the rural southern counties such as Sumter, where Spratt has local connections and loyal minority voters, and dominate in the more heavily populated northern areas like Fort Mill and Indian Land.

Democrats believe they may lose York County, but narrowly enough so that traditional strongholds in the south tilt the balance and provide a winning margin.

With Labor Day now here, both campaigns say the time has arrived to start turning months of careful game-planning into reality.