Waiting for Wilkins near a boil

e-mail this story print this story Dan Hoover • Waiting for Wilkins near a boil (04/10/05) • Edwards goes to college to stay visible (04/02/05) • Sanford makes some inroads with Legislature (03/27/05) • Graham has had good timing, meteoric rise (03/19/05) • DeMint, Inglis agree, differ with Graham on timeline for Iraq war (03/13/05)

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Will he take it or won't he?

The "he" is House Speaker David Wilkins, the Upstate's remaining source of big-time political clout in Columbia.

The "it" is the ambassadorship to Canada, America's No. 1 trading partner and, frequently, a tempestuous ally only degrees less so than France.

We've been down this road before, except this time it's stretching out longer than when Wilkins, a Greenville lawyer, was up for a federal judgeship and ambassador to Chile early in President Bush's first term.

'No thanks' now?
Each time, he quickly said no thanks.

Actually, the way these things work is that a sub rosa offer is made. If the subject wants to accept, he or she lets the administration know, then a formal offer is made. The idea is that the president is never subjected to the purported embarrassment of being turned down.

In a perfect world, the public is in the dark until that formal offer goes out and immediate acceptance is made.

Alas, this isn't a perfect world. In that perfect world, the work of the 124-member House would go on unimpeded.

That's not the case.

The very speculation that Wilkins might depart has would-be successors — at least four Republicans and one Democrat — scrambling to line up backing to replace him, if it comes to that.

The four are Reps. Jim Harrison of Columbia, Judiciary Committee chairman; Doug Smith, speaker pro tem; Harry Cato of Travelers Rest, Labor, Commerce and Industry chairman; and Bobby Harrell of Charleston, Ways and Means chairman.

Different strategies
While some members give Harrison the inside track if Wilkins departs, others suggest that Harrell is running only to protect his position as chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee and keep the road open for a 2010 governor's race.

Democrat Doug Jennings of Bennettsville is running, but with his party outnumbered 74-50, he's in it only to extract concessions for a minority largely stripped of any power.

The ripples spread further through the House pond as committee chairmen begin to worry for their positions of power if they back the wrong bullfrog; so too, the subcommittee chairmen below them.

Pretty soon, everyone's either politicking, worried or both.

"There's no change," Wilkins said as the week ended. "I haven't received any appointment and all this is pure speculation."

"We're getting work done, but with all the rumors, it's distracting, sure," Wilkins said.

Rep. James Smith, a Columbia Democrat and former minority leader, sees a "distraction that will color some of the debate in the way people will take positions or there will be greater pressure for some of those speaker candidates to do things based upon their support."

Dark potential
To Rep. Dan Tripp, R-Mauldin, one of those on the receiving end of entreaties, "It has the potential to be a bloodbath, which would be a huge distraction. Not only would you have the speaker's race, but I was informed this morning that I was the only person who didn't call around last weekend asking for votes on the LCI chairmanship.

Warren Mowry, a former Greenville County GOP chairman, said, "Any thinking that the big dog isn't going to have any bite hurts his ability to function. I know it's there, but I don't like the speculation."

State Sen. Jake Knotts, R-Lexington, was a House member when Wilkins' name was up for the judgeship and envoy to Santiago.

"It got to be very disruptive when it happened before," he recalled last week.

Wilkins 'focused'
But Ed McMullen, president of the South Carolina Policy Council, who is close to Wilkins, sees business as usual.

He says Wilkins "is focused, the agenda is focused."

Tripp says a lot of the focus is on the rumor de jour, with members loitering around the back rail of the House chamber, swapping the latest scuttlebutt and handicapping the outcome of a vacancy.

While it's pretty certain that any speaker's vacancy will be filled by one of the four Republicans who have expressed interest, who would fill the District 24 House seat he has held for 25 years is up in the air.

Ed Foulke, the Greenville County GOP chairman, said he hasn't heard any names mentioned, but is aware a "bunch of people" are interested and that a primary would be a virtual certainty.

But holding the 24th District won't necessarily be a Republican cakewalk, Mowry said.

"Wilkins wins by huge margins simply because he's Wilkins, but it's not an overwhelmingly Republican district, although it's stronger than it was because of Republican precincts added through redistricting. It's not a slam-dunk; we'll have to work at it."

Andy Arnold, Greenville's Democratic chairman, agrees.

"That's why some of us are already talking about it," he says. No names yet. "With Wilkins gone, we'd have a shot," particularly in a special election with no top-of-the-ticket pull, he said.
Dan Hoover's column appears on Sunday. He can be reached at (864) 298-4883 or toll-free at (800) 274-7879, extension 4883, and by fax at (864) 298-4395.)