Republicans worry about Bush

As their Democratic counterparts go to the polls today, South Carolina Republicans are increasingly wary about President Bush’s re-election prospects in 2004.

Some fear he could lose.

Just a month ago, they talked confidently of re-electing Bush for another four years.

All that changed after John Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, replaced former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as the Democratic front-runner.

Dean was seen as more liberal and therefore the weakest candidate the Democrats could put up against him.

Kerry presents Republicans with a different challenge. First of all, he is a veteran politician who can avoid the obvious mistakes of a political newcomer. And he’s a Vietnam war hero running in a time of war.

“He’ll give Bush a run for his money,” said West Columbia restaurant owner Betty Jackson, a lifelong Republican.

That seems to be borne out in two polls conducted over the weekend. The CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll and the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute both have Kerry leading Bush by 8 percentage points.

Bush carried South Carolina in 2000, winning 57 percent of the vote. He is expected to carry it again.

“But it won’t be the kind of margin that he got last time,” said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen.

Republicans expect a competitive test.

“This is a very divided country,” said Tucker Eskew, a senior adviser to the Bush-Cheney re-election committee. “The president expects to fall behind whoever the media and primary voters anoint as the Democratic nominee.

“We know we’ve got our work cut out for us.”

South Carolina is still Bush country, but some cracks are beginning to show in what once was solid support for the president.

Take Fred McElveen, a dermatologist, who voted for Bush in 2000.

“I don’t know if I’m going to vote for him this time; he’s screwing up so much,” he said, mentioning the aftermath of the war in Iraq and the mounting federal deficit.

Most Midlands Republicans interviewed worried about the president’s re-election chances. Several had problems with Bush, especially his proposal to open the U.S. borders more to immigrants.

“That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense,” said Mike Connolly, an electrical equipment salesman. “But he’s the man in charge, so you’ve got to ride the storm with him.”

Bush plans a campaign tone that is “hopeful and optimistic,” contrasting sharply with the Democrats’ “angry, pessimistic campaign,” Eskew said.

“They’ve spent eight months and $20 million running vicious messages that didn’t offer any hope or solutions.”

Eskew said Republicans will respect Kerry’s record of military service as honorable. But at the same time, they’ll call voters’ attention to the senator’s record of advocating policies that undermine national security.

“He has a long history of supporting defense cuts, opposing weapons programs that helped us win the Cold War, and supporting drastic cuts in intelligence and terror-fighting programs.”

“Americans are going to have a very clear choice in November,” Eskew said.

Bush doesn’t have to worry about Robert Kennedy, a Columbia architect.

“Bush is not in trouble,” he said. “It looks that way in the press; the press is generally biased.”

Except for a handful of dyed-in-the-wool Republicans, most rejected the notion that Bush is home free.

“I’m concerned that Bush could lose,” said Columbia attorney Douglas McKay Sr.

Joe Mack, former vice chairman of the Lexington County Republican Party, said Bush could lose, “but I think he’ll get out of it.”

Democrats are certain to fight very hard for the White House in 2004. Despite their primary in-fighting, they are united in their determination to defeat Bush.

Republicans expect a nasty campaign.

The GOP successfully painted Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis as out of touch with mainstream America in 1988, when he lost badly to the first President Bush. Republicans will try to do the same to Kerry, a one-time lieutenant governor for Dukakis.

Republicans would make a serious mistake if they underestimated Kerry.

“At this juncture, I would have to give the president the edge,” said Thigpen. “But Republicans better be on their toes. They dare not take Kerry lightly.”