An endorsement from Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., so entices
Democratic presidential candidates that you might think Clyburn
himself gets to vote 100,000 times in the Feb. 3 South Carolina
primary.
Since Clyburn’s first endorsement became moot with Dick
Gephardt’s fall in the Iowa caucuses Monday, every one of the
remaining seven campaigns has called to court him.
And so many reporters have bombarded the Columbia congressman
with questions about whom he would endorse next, he decided to hold
a teleconference with them.
Scores of reporters Wednesday — from ABC News to The New York
Times to The (Sumter) Item to Black Entertainment Television —
waited on the line for Clyburn to even hint at which candidate he
will favor.
They know an endorsement from the most powerful black politician
in a state where up to half of primary voters are black will mean
something.
The answer from the 63-year-old Clyburn, vice chairman of the
House Democratic Caucus: I might not endorse at all.
“I may, but I may not ... I’m not leaning toward anybody at this
point in time. If I did, it would be after the (Jan. 27) New
Hampshire primary.”
So what if the vice chairman of the House Democratic Caucus
endorses? What if he doesn’t? What does it matter?
Endorsements often don’t matter, but that’s not the case with
Clyburn, said Neal Thigpen, a political science professor at Francis
Marion University.
In a general election, most voters already have strong opinions
before they read about a newspaper’s or politician’s endorsement.
But with a primary, especially one as surprising and fluid as this
year’s Democratic presidential primaries, he said, an endorsement
such as Clyburn’s can carry tremendous weight.
And the South Carolina primary — so early in the process and the
first in the South — could be the make-or-break contest for many of
the candidates.
“Things are happening so fast, and there are so many candidates,”
Thigpen said. “Voters get confused and want some guidance.”
For those who still believe that one man’s opinion won’t mean
much Feb. 3, consider a bit of research from the Gephardt
campaign.
Aiken native Bill Carrick, who was a media adviser to Gephardt,
said the campaign’s pollster asked 600 likely S.C. Democratic voters
in December how Clyburn’s endorsement would affect their opinions of
Gephardt.
Sixty-five percent said they would be more likely to vote for
Gephardt, 30 percent said it would make no difference, and 5 percent
said it would make them less likely.
“We said, ‘Wow!’ Those are good numbers,” Carrick said.
But how does Clyburn move voters toward the candidate of his
choice?
He has no big-city style Democratic machine like the one that
controlled Chicago or Boston, said Dick Harpootlian, former chairman
of the S.C. Democratic Party.
“There’s no machine here. His endorsement gives credibility. It
works the same as it does for the Republicans. Let me put it this
way: When (former S.C. Gov.) Carroll Campbell endorsed Bush, it was
auto-call machines and mailings with Campbell’s endorsement on it
all over the state.”
Clyburn denies heading up any sort of electoral army.
“I do not have an organization,” he said. “I do have the power to
network ... I spend a lot of time with beauticians and barbers and
other working men and women. To the extent they trust me, I may have
some influence with them.”
Of course, Clyburn’s is not the only endorsement that matters in
South Carolina.
All the presidential candidates also have called U.S. Rep. John
Spratt, the state’s only other Democratic member of the House.
Spratt has served there for nearly 25 years, commanding respect as
the ranking Democrat on the Budget Committee. He also had endorsed
Gephardt.
“He is keeping his options open; no endorsement is expected
soon,” Spratt spokesman Chuck Fant said.
And what about the most senior of all South Carolina Democrats,
U.S. Sen. Fritz Hollings?
Hollings is sticking with his earlier decision not to endorse a
candidate before the voters choose a Democratic nominee, Hollings
spokeswoman Ilene Zeldin said.
Reach Markoe at (202) 383-6023 or lmarkoe@krwashington.com.