The vast majority of hurricane experts' preseason storm predictions have widely missed the mark in the last two years. So was it reassuring Tuesday when one of the most prominent hurricane experts, William Gray, downgraded his 2006 forecast for the fourth time?

As reported in Wednesday's Post and Courier, the Tropical Meteorological Project, led by Professor Gray of Colorado State University, now predicts only two more tropical storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, and a less than 25 percent probability of a storm hitting the United States, before the Nov. 30 end of the hurricane season. So far this year, only nine storms, five of them hurricanes and only two reaching "major" status, passed through the Atlantic basin. Yet Prof. Gray, at the June 1 start of the season, had projected 15 storms, with eight becoming hurricanes, four of them major.

Thank the lingering "Bermuda high" pressure system for the tamest hurricane season - so far - in more than a decade. Also thank those hurricane experts, who despite their proven fallibility serve the public good by alerting us of both long- and short-term storm dangers.

Advances in weather forecasting save lives. Justified controversy over the failures of the levee system in New Orleans last year should not obscure the fair Hurricane Katrina warnings that meteorologists gave authorities and residents. If more people had evacuated, far fewer would have died.

As for the second straight year of faulty preseason hurricane projections, at least this year we're getting far fewer instead of far more storms. And if you think long-range weather forecasts should be more accurate, remember, nobody really knows if, or how much, it's going to rain around here this weekend.