Upstate holds upper hand in election clout

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A self-described "wordsmith," the Bob Jones University instructor pairs that with an appreciation "for our form of government."

It's not surprising, then, that someone with such exactitude toward grammar and politics hasn't missed a GOP primary since the 1960s, a time when a Republican primary was rare enough to be an event.

Hargis, 65, may be alone in proofreading the platform, but when it comes to voting in Republican primaries, she has plenty of company in South Carolina's Upstate.

In sheer turnout, Greenville, Anderson, Laurens, Oconee, Pickens and Spartanburg counties eclipse every other region of the state.

"It makes the difference," Luke Byars, executive director of the state GOP, said of the Upstate's outsize influence on his party's primary elections.

"It's the biggest voting bloc in the state for us. I don't think a candidate can win a Republican primary — and, especially, a runoff — if they can't win the Upstate."

Over the past 10 major statewide Republican primary elections, from Ronald Reagan's 1980 presidential blowout of George H. W. Bush and John Connally to Mark Sanford's 2002 gubernatorial runoff victory, the Upstate has averaged 29.3 percent of the votes.

An analysis of State Election Commission reports by The Greenville News showed that the six counties ranged from 24.2 percent for the 1994 gubernatorial runoff to 34.1 percent in 2002's six-way gubernatorial primary.

The counties have 26 percent of South Carolina's 4 million residents.

Greenville, with 9 percent of the state's population, can vote up to 14 percent of the statewide total.

"It's pivotal, simply because of the numbers," said Warren Mowry, a former Greenville County Republican chairman.

The June 8 GOP primary for the U.S. Senate involves six candidates, one from the Upstate, one from the Pee Dee and four from the coast:

U.S. Rep. Jim DeMint of Greenville, former Gov. David Beasley of Society Hill, former Attorney General Charlie Condon of Sullivans Island, Charleston developer Thomas Ravenel, Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride and Bluffton businesswoman Orly Benny Davis.

Condon and political newcomer Ravenel are locked in a struggle with DeMint for a slot in the almost certain June 22 runoff primary with Beasley, the candidate with perhaps the highest name recognition.

How the Upstate and Lowcountry vote splits may determine the shape of the runoff.

Ed McMullen, president of the South Carolina Policy Council, a conservative think tank, sees the Upstate's heavy vote as a boost for DeMint, because he's local, and Beasley, because of his ties to the Christian right and textile interests.

"There's so much at work in this primary, the provinciality of the Lowcountry wanting one of their own, then you have a conservative base in the Upstate which is a third of the primary vote," McMullen said.

Regional voting can cut more than one way.

"In the Lowcountry, it's anyone but the Upstate. One Upstate senator, OK," McMullen said. "Two? It ain't going to happen."

Beasley not done well in the Lowcountry in the past, but DeMint has geography working against him.

Some voters in Charleston and its neighboring Lowcountry counties may not look too kindly on the possibility of a second Upstate candidate — DeMint — joining Sen. Lindsey Graham, who lives in Seneca, just 40 miles from Greenville.

But they have four candidates from their coastal region on the ballot, a potential for fragmentation.

Jack Bass, College of Charleston political scientist, said, "My impression is, the Lowcountry is split" between Ravenel and Condon.

Recent polls have shown Condon slipping into fourth place statewide as Ravenel moved into third behind DeMint.

Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.