The nation's hurricane guru, Colorado State University forecaster William Gray, on Friday called for another "above average" year of hurricanes in 2005, laying out a preliminary prediction of 11 tropical storms.

Gray's team believes six of those storms will become hurricanes and that three will be "major" hurricanes with winds stronger than 111 mph.

The forecast put the odds at 69 percent that at least one major hurricane will smack the United States.

Gray's annual end-of-season forecast follows a year in which 15 tropical storms formed in the Atlantic region; nine became hurricanes and six major hurricanes. In December 2003, he predicted 13 storms, seven becoming hurricanes and three major. His predictions underestimated the number of major storms by half.

The long-term average for storms is 9.6 per season, with six becoming hurricanes and 2.3 becoming major.The National Hurricane Center doesn't release its 2005 season's forecasts until spring. Hurricane Specialist Jack Beven said Gray's December forecasts haven't been too accurate. But in general terms, he concurred.

"Unless El Nino starts intensifying, there is no obvious reason to think next year's season won't be active," he said. The El Nino warming trend is the primary natural event storm predictors use as a signal to help determine potential activity for the Atlantic season.

The forecast included a few bits of good news. Beven said there was some suggestion El Nino could strengthen, for example.

Philip Klotzbach, a member of Gray's forecast team, said the unusual weather that helped form so many strong storms and push them across Florida this year is not expected next year.

Klotzbach said the accuracy of Gray's forecasts has improved since the late 1990s, and a new "statistical scheme" for arriving at the numbers was programmed in 2001.

"When you look at it, a five-day weather forecast isn't all that accurate, and we're forecasting six months in advance," said Brad Bohlander, a project spokesman.

The early forecasts are released as a planning aid for everyone from homeowners and travelers to insurance agents and emergency managers, he said.

"They are pretty accurate at least in saying whether it's going to be an active year or an inactive year," he said.

The forecast came the day after the season's 15th tropical storm, Otto, fell apart in the Atlantic. It formed Tuesday, the last day of the season, which is considered to run June 1 to Nov. 30.

The 2004 season was one of the most destructive on record. Four hurricanes, including three major storms, hit Florida hard, more than have ever landed in a season in 130 years of record-keeping.

Three storms, two of which were hurricanes, made landfall in South Carolina, the first time in a century and a half so many have landed and the first time since 1959 two hurricanes have struck. Hurricane Gaston alone caused an estimated $20 million in damage.

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