November 4, 2004

Clinton and Edwards head ’08 list
By Alexander Bolton

The names of defeated vice-presidential nominee Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) emerged yesterday from the Democrats’ leadership void as the front-running candidates to challenge for the White House in 2008.

Their dispirited colleagues also floated the name of a third senator, Evan Bayh of Indiana, but said he lagged behind Edwards and Clinton in stature.

Tuesday’s defeat, which left the party locked out of the White House and a handful of seats further way from control of the House and Senate, was crushing, Democrats said.

Edwards appeared to begin his run for the presidency immediately, when introducing Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), the vanquished presidential candidate, who waited at his side to make a concession speech in Boston’s Faneuil Hall.

While Kerry focused on the 2004 campaign, thanking the staff, volunteers, and supporters, Edwards focused on the future, declaring, “We won’t stop fighting for you when this campaign ends. You can be disappointed, but you can’t walk away. The fight has just begun. This campaign may end today, but the battle for you rages on.”

The difference between the tone and contrast of Edwards’s speech and those of Kerry, who described “the desperate need for unity, for coming together” by red and blue America, appeared to mark a parting of the ways between the Democratic Party’s past and its future.

Steve Jarding, former head of Edwards’s leadership PAC, One America Committee, said the North Carolinian was “positioned to go as far as he wants.”

It would be difficult for Edwards to stay in the public eye because he “doesn’t have a forum now,” Jarding said, but he added that his former boss had “the variables it takes to be successful.”

Edwards has the energy and drive for a 2008 White House run, Jarding added, and an edge over Clinton should party leaders decide they need to expand their base into the South, a decision he portrayed as necessary.

“Can this party try to compete when we [have] 10 states on the East Coast and five on the West Coast?” he asked. “We have to reach out to all Americans.”

Steve Grossman, who preceded Terry McAuliffe as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, highlighted three leading Democratic candidates for the White House in four years.

“Clearly, there are two people who will want to run and will be candidates and will be mentioned [as White House hopefuls] regardless of what they say,” Grossman said, referring to Edwards and Clinton. “And maybe a third,” he added, speaking of Bayh. Grossman said he could not think of any governors who would be obvious contenders.

Edwards and Clinton are prodigious fundraisers, having crisscrossed the country in recent years to raise millions of dollars for themselves and their party. Clinton’s HillPAC has been one of the most generous of any lawmaker’s PAC. It has given more than $1 million to Democratic candidates in the past two election cycles, according to politicalmoneyline.com, which tracks political giving.

Edwards’s One America Committee has given $190,000 to candidates during the same period, but his main effort during that time was on raising funds for his White House race.

Democratic insiders often mention Bayh as a strong presidential or vice-presidential candidate. His leadership PAC has given $400,000 to candidates since 1999.

Several Democratic insiders said the party is without a leader in the wake of Bush’s victory and Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle’s (D-S.D.) defeat. Before Kerry’s nomination, Daschle had been the party’s main spokesman.

“I don’t think there’s any doubt there’s a bit of a leadership vacuum,” said Mike Lux, a former Clinton aide heavily involved in the coalition of liberal advocacy groups known as the shadow Democratic Party.

Lux said Clinton could emerge as the next leader. “Hillary is a strong presence, and she will get and deserve a lot of attention,” he said.

Lux added, “I think [Edwards is] one of several people who’s going to be a front-runner if he chooses to run. There are a lot of people who like them and a lot who don’t.”

Many Democrats say privately that Edwards was a poor vice-presidential candidate. They criticize his low profile compared to Vice President Dick Cheney and his reluctance to fill the traditional running mate’s role as partisan attack dog.

“Edwards is widely regarded as a disaster as a vice-presidential candidate,” said one Democratic consultant involved in the Kerry campaign. “After one week of good press, he disappeared. He was missing in action when the veterans were going after Kerry in August. Where was he the whole time?

“He wanted to play Mr. Nice Guy, smiley face with thumbs up, and that’s not the role of the vice president.”

Other party insiders listed Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack as Democrats who could become national leaders.

Republican insiders offered their own ideas of likely successors to Bush in 2008.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tenn.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, New York Gov. George Pataki, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Colorado Gov. Bill Owens are considered by Republican political observers to be strong candidates for the White House.

Reciting what he called “the usual list of suspects, in no particular order,” Dirk Van Dongen, president of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors and a lobbyist with strong ties to the White House, named Frist, Giuliani, McCain, Pataki and Bush, though he noted that Bush has said he’s not interested in running to replace his brother.

Grover Norquist, another strategist close to the Bush White House, said the strongest Republican presidential candidate in 2008 would be “a governor who passed the most expansive economic reforms” and therefore has a strong record of
accomplishment to run on. Norquist named Texas Gov. Rick Perry and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford among other governors as promising candidates.

Norquist predicted that Democratic chances in 2008 would be undone by the strength of Clinton, whom he believed could easily capture the nomination but has no chance of winning a general election.

“The problem the Democrats have is the one the Republicans had in 1996,” he said. “Dole was the candidate who could not be denied his party’s nomination. He was also the one candidate who could never win the general.”