RALEIGH, N.C. - George W. Bush still is
positioned to extend the Republican presidential winning streak in
North Carolina, even if John Edwards is the Democratic nominee,
according to a new poll.
The survey by Research 2000 shows President Bush ahead of
Edwards, the North Carolina Democrat, as well as front-runner Howard
Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark if the election were held
today.
The poll, commissioned by The News & Observer of Raleigh,
showed Bush ahead of Edwards 52 percent to 42 percent in a
head-to-head matchup. Bush also leads the former Vermont governor
Dean, 54 percent to 40 percent, and Clark 50 percent to 40
percent.
A Democrat hasn't won North Carolina's electoral votes since
1976.
"North Carolina remains George Bush's state to lose," said Del
Ali, president of Research 2000, based in Rockville, Md. "If Edwards
were the nominee, it could be a competitive race, but I would still
favor Bush, based on what we see here."
Edwards disputed the contention, noting that previous Research
2000 polls showed Bush with advantages as large as 19 percentage
points.
"It's just all moving in my direction," he said Friday while
campaigning in South Carolina. "It's a pretty dramatic change over a
short period of time."
The telephone poll of 600 likely voters in North Carolina,
conducted Monday through Thursday, has a margin of sampling error of
plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The survey did show Bush falling in some areas. The percentage of
polled voters rating his job performance as "excellent" or "good"
has fallen from 63 percent in July to 54 percent now.
Fifty-eight percent also said Bush has not done enough to protect
furniture, textiles and other manufacturing industries in the
state.
Many textile executives have complained the Bush administration
is not doing enough to protect their companies from inexpensive
overseas products. North Carolina's manufacturing sector has lost
about 150,000 jobs over the past three years, while the state's
jobless rate remains among the highest in the country.
The poll found Edwards leading in North Carolina's Democratic
presidential primary, which will be held in May.
Edwards drew the support of 43 percent of Democrats surveyed,
with Dean at 25 percent - an amount that has more than doubled since
January. The seven other Democrats were in single digits, including
Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts at 9 percent - down from 20 percent
in July.
The poll also showed increasing approval of his presidential run
- 54 percent of those surveyed now approve of it compared to 39
percent when he launched his exploratory bid in January. Edwards
said in September he would not seek re-election to the Senate next
year so he could devote all of his energies to run for the
presidency.
Twenty-one percent of those polled said Edwards is likely to win
the nomination, while 34 percent said he has some chance to win and
36 percent said he has no chance.