SUMTER — Like bettors handicapping a horse race, the military “experts” of the Internet are predicting the U.S. military bases that will be closed after the next round of base closings.

If their predictions are true, Sumter County’s Shaw Air Force Base will be fighting for its life during the next round of base closings — known as BRAC — in 2005.

State and local leaders say those predictions, widely circulated via e-mail and available on a number of military-related Web sites, are at best rumors even if the authors claim their information comes from a “bud in the Pentagon.”

“They don’t mean anything,” said U.S. Rep. John Spratt, D-S.C., whose congressional district includes the Air Force fighter base. “Frankly, I don’t think they even rise to the level of a rumor.”

Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Tom Olsen, who’s leading the Sumter community’s effort to save Shaw, said any list of base closings now in the media or on the Internet is bogus.

The lists are “not based on facts. They’re just somebody speculating,” Olsen said. “There is no base closing list. There isn’t even a draft of a draft.”

But the Internet reports on Shaw gain some credence when coupled with remarks by public officials.

For example, on Sept. 26, while touring the Charleston Naval Weapons Station, Gov. Mark Sanford was asked which of the S.C. bases — all are up for review — might be threatened by a new round of closings.

“The obvious is obvious,” Sanford said. “Shaw for a long time has been in a danger zone. I don’t think we’re out of the danger zone with regards to Shaw.”

Other S.C. installations up for review are:

• Fort Jackson in Columbia

• McEntire Air National Guard Station in Eastover

• Charleston Air Force Base

• The Charleston Naval Weapons Station

• The Marine Corps Air Station in Beaufort

• The Marine Corps Recruit Depot on Parris Island.

ENCROACHMENT, ‘NARROW’ MISSION

Losing Shaw could wreak economic havoc on the Sumter area.

The economic impact of the base, which has about 5,600 active-duty airmen and about 1,000 civilian employees, is $690 million a year, Olsen said.

The fact that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld aims to close 100 bases in the next round of base closings, which will begin in 2005, also fuels the speculation that Shaw is on the edge.

Rumsfeld wants the congressional Base Closure and Realignment Commission plan to close as many as one-third of Army bases, one-quarter of Air Force bases, and a smaller fraction of Marine and Navy bases.

Spratt noted Rumsfeld’s goal exceeds the total number of bases that were closed in the first four rounds of BRAC, from 1988 to 1995.

In 1995, Shaw was ranked in the yellow zone by the base-closing commission, meaning it was a potential candidate for closing.

That’s true again this time, according to Carlton Meyer, editor of g2mil.com and author of one of the more widely circulated reports on BRAC.

A former Marine captain who lives in Richmond, Calif., Meyer said he culled his conclusions about Shaw from the responses of more than 100 military observers, including sources inside the Pentagon, to an e-mail query he sent to them.

Shaw’s shortcomings, which Meyer cites, have been brought up by other critics as well.

Development is encroaching on the base’s perimeter, Meyer said. Also, Shaw’s mission — it’s a fighter base only — is too narrow, said Meyer, noting the Pentagon will be looking for facilities that have multiple uses.

Shaw, home to the 20th Fighter Wing, has three 24-jet F-16 fighter squadrons. The 9th Air Force Headquarters, which commands all air forces under the U.S. Central Command that oversees Iraq and Southwest Asia, also is a major tenant at Shaw.

Shaw’s jets and personnel played key roles during the opening weeks of the Iraq war. And its chances of surviving the next round of base closings would improve if the Air Force assigned it another squadron, Meyer said.

Shaw easily could accommodate another squadron, Olsen said. It also could be expanded to house more squadrons, he added.

‘NOT IN SOME RED ZONE’

Spratt remains upbeat about Shaw’s chances.

He notes a request to build a new deployment processing center, at a cost of $8.5 million, at the base is headed toward final approval in Congress. Airmen regularly deploy from Shaw to other bases around the world, including the Persian Gulf region.

Also, a $4.7 million, 29,000-square-foot education center, where airmen can take college-level and technical school classes, is nearing completion.

And last spring, the base opened a $5.2 million, 21,000-square-foot dining hall.

On the drawing board is a multimillion-dollar housing project that would lead to the replacement of almost all of the base’s 1,702 living units, Olsen said.

“Shaw has stood the test for four successive times for base closures,” Spratt said. “Is it at risk, absolutely.

“This round of closings has to be taken seriously, no doubt about it. But Shaw’s still not in some red zone.”

Reach Crumbo at (803) 771-8503 or ccrumbo@thestate.com.