State's primary could decide Democratic nomination

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"If Dean can be stopped, it'll happen Feb. 3 — or not at all," said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop University political scientist, referring to South Carolina and the six other states with primaries that day.

"He's going to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire as the candidate to beat," leaving South Carolina's primary a make-or-break contest, said Bruce Ransom of Clemson University's Strom Thurmond Institute.

Most of the nine Democratic candidates predict victories or strong showings in the opening contests, the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 19, the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 27 and South Carolina a week later.

The winnowing process will begin before Feb. 3 as candidates fail to meet expectations and watch their money and support dry up.

Don Fowler, the former national Democratic Party chairman from Columbia, said recently on "PBS Newshour" that "after Iowa and New Hampshire, we'll have two or three people still in the race. We'll have a candidate by the end of February, if not before" because of the tightly bunched primaries that quickly follow.

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, campaigning last weekend in Spartanburg, said he had "always thought this race would quickly boil down to two or three candidates."

He said he expects to win in Iowa and come close in New Hampshire.

"You have to keep winning," he said. "This primary in South Carolina is going to be pivotal."

Earl Black of Rice University predicted "a death-struggle atmosphere."

"We're going to have every one of the Democratic contenders that are still in the race with any realistic hope of being elected saying to himself or herself, 'I've got to win in South Carolina," he said on National Public Radio.

'Full-court press'

The ranks of the undecided are likely to dwindle once January arrives and most of the candidates begin to step up in-state campaigning, advertising and phone banks, what Winthrop's Huffmon calls the "full-court press."

"Among political junkies who have no other life, we've been watching this since way back when, but real people with real lives are just now beginning to pay attention," he said.

Fowler thinks it may be as long as Iowa on Jan. 19 before "we really begin to think thoroughly about how we are going to vote here."

A nationally televised debate from Greenville's Peace Center on Jan. 29, five days out, could accelerate the process.

With a South Carolina victory, Dean's momentum would accelerate because he will have demonstrated the ability to win the racially diverse constituency of a Southern state, always the missing ingredient when Democrats fail to take the White House, Ransom said.

Conversely, failing to win or run a strong second or third, could raise doubts about Dean's ability to seriously challenge President Bush. The only Democrats who have won the White House since 1964 have been those able to carry some Southern states.

"Dean has more to prove in South Carolina than anyone," said Dick Harpootlian, the former state party chairman. "If he can't win in a Southern state, well, he can't win (the presidency)."

Bill Carrick, Gephardt's Aiken-born strategist, said that "from what we know now, it's going to be the big showdown state (where) you're going to run into the same dynamics as the Republicans in 2000 with split decisions in Iowa and New Hampshire and somebody getting a major upper hand by winning South Carolina."

Who will be left?

The looming question is: Who will emerge as the alternative to Dean among Gephardt, Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina, John Kerry of Massachusetts, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas?

Merle Black, an Emory University professor specializing in Southern and presidential politics, predicted "one ferocious battle" in South Carolina.

"Everybody who survives New Hampshire is going to be desperate for a victory in South Carolina, except perhaps Dean, because he can certainly go on," Black said. "South Carolina offers him a tremendous opportunity to wrap it up."

Dean is neck and neck with Gephardt in Iowa, whose caucuses Gephardt was expected to win handily. Dean, the former Vermont governor, holds a wide lead in New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary, polling shows. An early December Zogby Research poll had Dean first in South Carolina, at 11 percent, but Clark and Gephardt within the margin of error.

Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia's presidential scholar, posits this scenario: Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa, knocking him out, then whips Kerry in New Hampshire, knocking him out, setting the stage for Clark or Edwards to emerge as "the anti-Dean" going into Feb. 3.

"As long as Dean wins his fair share, we're moving to a Dean-only situation," he said.

Edwards has the most at stake in South Carolina, having spent heavily here, playing on his Upstate roots, without gaining serious traction as his nationwide fund-raising ebbed. Because he is an almost certain also-ran in Iowa and New Hampshire, some analysts have said anything less than a victory in South Carolina will put him out of the race.

Alone among the major candidates, Kerry appears to have invested little in South Carolina in recent personal time and campaign infrastructure. Published reports late in the week outlined a Kerry strategy of focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire and skipping the Feb. 3 states, hoping for enough bounce to build for a stretch run.

Kerry's goals

But South Carolina and the other Feb. 3 states are what Kerry needs, said Brad Gomez, a University of South Carolina political scientist.

"If Gephardt wins Iowa, so what? If Edwards manages to win South Carolina, we still might end up with, so what?" Gomez said. "These will all have been favorite-son competitions."

In the last two weeks, Dean's major opponents have given de facto recognition to his front-runner status by singling him out for criticism and comparisons.

Dean has called them "tag-team attacks."

In South Carolina, former Gov. Jim Hodges, a Clark backer, went after Dean, saying that Democrats need a candidate who can win against Bush, not another unelectable choice of the party's left wing.

Three contenders are given virtually no chance of carrying a state, much less winning the nomination, civil rights activist Al Sharpton, former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley-Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich.

But Sharpton has spent more time in the state than any of the others, working black churches and college campuses. In some polls he has topped brand-name contenders. His showing among African-American voters could affect who wins and who loses.

Recent polling in South Carolina shows the leadership changing hands with the timing and methodology, but one constant has been Sharpton edging higher.

Zell Miller, Georgia's Democratic senator, predicted recently on MSNBC that Sharpton "is going to get a lot of votes in the South." Miller said he based that on Jesse Jackson's overwhelming support from black voters in his 1988 presidential bid when he carried several Southern states, including the South Carolina caucuses.

"The rotund reverend from New York, although he's not a Southerner, is going to do very well," Miller said. "This man is as slick as a peeled onion. The Rev. (Sharpton) is very different (from Jackson). He's engaging. He's funny. He's likable."

Endorsements pushed

Each campaign is touting endorsements, although their value in many cases is limited, some analysts say.

Two stand out: Al Gore's surprise backing of Dean and U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn's expected nod to Gephardt.

There was no South Carolina Democratic presidential primary in 2000 that might allow a measurement of Gore's stature. But in the general election, he took 41 percent of the statewide vote and 32 percent in Greenville.

To Harpootlian, "If Dean were to win Iowa and New Hampshire and have Gore campaign for him down here, I'd say it's over."

Gore, while less popular among Democrats than either of the Clintons, "retains considerable influence among the Democratic Party's base," Harpootlian said.

But Clyburn is the state's most influential black political figure, and in addition to a campaign television ad built around him, he's pledged to spend all available time until Feb. 3 talking up Gephardt.

Dean countered with U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., a Greenville native and son of civil rights leader Jesse Jackson Sr.

Lieberman added a South Carolina link to his Web site on Thursday featuring state Rep. John Scott of Columbia, chairman of the Legislative Black Caucus.

How much time Dean will devote to South Carolina is murky. During a two-hour Dec. 7 stop in Columbia, he spoke in terms of perhaps a day in January.

And Delacey Skinner, Dean's state spokeswoman, said he would return to South Carolina in January "if he's available."

Phil Noble of Charleston, president of the state's centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said Dean's absence from South Carolina would be meaningless.

"He's running a national campaign, communicating with people nationally and individually, and the state campaigns are almost an archaic, artificial infrastructure sort of put on top of that."

Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.