Ophelia forecast looking grimmer for S.C., Georgia


	Posted on Fri, Sep. 09, 2005

	Ophelia forecast looking grimmer for S.C., Georgia Dangerous surf at local beaches 5-day track suggests landfall near S.C.-Ga. line From staff and wire reports hu ON THE RADAR Ophelia weakened to a tropical storm Friday and began moving away from Florida, but forecasters say it poses a growing threat to the Southeast coast. Though Ophelia's top sustained winds had dropped to 65 mph, forecasters warned that it is expected to turn toward land as a hurricane next week. It is expected to return to hurricane strength - 74 mph sustained winds - by late Friday. "By no means should people take this short-term motion as being let off the hook here," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Jamie Rhome said. "I don't want people to say, 'Whew this one's going out to sea.' There's still a possibility that it could loop back." The latest five-day forecast track takes the storm toward the S.C.-Georgia border after it heads away from the coast and makes a projected loop. Because that forecast has a wide margin of error, forecasters urge residents from North Carolina to Florida to stay closely tuned to forecasts throughout the weekend. Emergency-management officials in Horry County and other counties along South Carolina's coast remain on alert in response to Ophelia's potential threat. The State Emergency Management Division said residents in coastal and flood-prone areas of the state should keep a close watch. "The storm could bring heavy rain, damaging winds, tornadoes and localized flooding to South Carolina," a news release from the agency warned. Lisa Bourcier, Horry County public-information officer, on Friday morning said the county remains on alert status. "That may change over the weekend depending on Ophelia's course," she said in an e-mail. "We are still holding daily conference calls with the state and coastal counties. It is still a wait-and-see game." Regardless of the storm's track this weekend, it will have an impact in the region, in the form of high surf and dangerous rip currents. And a small craft warning is in effect. At daybreak Friday, Tropical Storm Ophelia had top sustained winds of 65 mph and was centered about 115 miles east of Daytona Beach, Fla. Three changes took place overnight. First, Ophelia weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm. Its top winds fell from 75 mph Thursday evening. Forecasters suspect the storm lost strength because it was stationary for nearly a day, and it stirred the waters of the Gulf Stream, bringing colder water to the surface. That effect, called "upwelling," deprived the storm of the warm water it needs to thrive. In addition, some dry air from the Carolinas has become entrenched in the storm. The second change is that Ophelia has begun moving slowly northeast. A weakness between two high pressure systems - one over the Atlantic, the other over the Carolinas and Tennessee - is permitting the storm to move to the northeast, away from the coast. However, forecasters say that within 48 hours, they expect the high pressure system over the Carolinas to expand eastward and cut off Ophelia's escape. That would force the storm to make a loop. And the third change is with the advance forecasts, called computer models. Many of those models now predict Ophelia will re-strengthen into a hurricane, complete a 360-degree loop, and eventually make landfall somewhere on the East Coast. None of that would happen before early to mid-next week, though, because the storm's steering currents are very weak. Ophelia has caused meteorologists plenty of anxiety, as the storm's unpredictable path has made forecasts difficult. Douglas Hoehler, of the National Weather Service office in Wilmington, said early Friday, "National Hurricane Center personnel will not have any nails to chew or any hair to pull after this cyclone." Hoehler says people entering the surf along the Grand Strand today should do so with care. Rip currents are likely, as are high waves from Ophelia. In addition, a small craft warning is in effect along the coast, with waves of 4 to 6 feet likely today, climbing to 5 to 7 feet by Saturday. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast for most of the weekend, with only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Daytime temperatures should reach the upper 80's. Authorities said now is a good time for families to review hurricane plans. "If a tropical storm is out there, we want people to be mindful of it," said John Legare, spokesman for the Emergency Management Division. Last year, the centers of four tropical systems crossed into South Carolina. Two storms, Hurricanes Charley and Gaston, made landfall within weeks and within miles of each other in Charleston County. - The Sun News and The Associated Press contributed to this report.