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Voters living in South Carolina’s critical swing counties hold the answer to this year’s gubernatorial question.
They most likely will pick the winner, either Republican Gov. Mark Sanford or Democratic nominee Sen. Tommy Moore.
The 15 counties, including five stretching across the middle of South Carolina, are key barometers.
The early verdict in the middle area brings a bit of good news to challenger Moore: People are open to change.
But while they’re open to voting against Sanford, they haven’t embraced Moore.
And how much time and money the Aiken County Democrat has to close the deal is an open question.
Interviews with more than two dozen voters in the area showed many with sentiments similar to longtime Camden jeweler Frank Goodale.
“I don’t know enough about the governor’s race to give an opinion,” said Goodale, who hasn’t selected a candidate.
Opportunities are there for the Democrat to win swing voters now and establish a solid front for the election.
That’s because many voters haven’t even begun to focus on the general election; they remain undecided. The opportunity makes it important for Moore to try to move these critical voters to his side now, analysts say.
“They are an important prize,” says Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen, a GOP activist. “They hold the balance of power.”
Moore has the tougher road to travel. The state is dominated by Republicans.
For him to win, he must capture about 20 percent of GOP ballots plus win a greater share of the swing vote.
He also needs to concentrate greater resources in these swing counties just to get known.
That is another challenge. Sanford is sitting on roughly $4.6 million in cash. Moore’s campaign had less than $150,000 on-hand after the June primary.
But not all is lost for Moore.
While these counties generally vote Republican in presidential election years, they are known to vote Democratic in state and local races. Swing county voters generally are blue-collar whites and professional women, noted College of Charleston professor Bill Moore.
“As voters come down the ballot, they loosen up. They vote Democrat some time, Republican some time,” Thigpen said.
Normally, these swing counties are represented in the General Assembly by a mix of both parties.
The counties are crucial to Moore’s prospects and Sanford’s re-election.
READY FOR CHANGE
Sanford has suffered some slippage, but Moore remains unknown, interviews in the swing counties indicate.
The five midstate swing counties are Barnwell, Edgefield, Kershaw, Newberry and Saluda.
In Newberry, voters are in a foul mood. They have very few kind words to say about Sanford — or any politician for that matter.
“I think he was a mistake,” said Joe Welborn, an 80-year-old retired postal official who voted for Sanford in 2002.
Others pine for change. “Kick the rascals out,” they say.
“This may be the first time in a number of years that I vote Democratic,” volunteered Larry Fulmer, a 63-year-old retired federal worker. “My basic philosophy is Republican. But I’m impressed with Tommy Moore. Right now, I’ll take him over Sanford, who’s basically worthless. He can’t accomplish anything,” a reference to the governor’s inability to get much of his agenda through the General Assembly.
Sanford lost the county to Prosperity physician Oscar Lovelace in the June 11 Republican primary.
Earle Bedenbaugh, a Prosperity businessman and former official in the Reagan administration, said Sanford has a “steep hill to climb.”
Recent polls have shown the race tightening between Sanford and Moore, a trend that puts greater importance on the swing vote. A July 27 poll taken of 500 likely voters by the Rasmussen Reports, for example, had the governor leading Moore 47-38 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
Jason Miller, campaign manager for Sanford, predicted the governor would keep his hold on the swing vote in November.
The selling points, he said, will be the governor’s tax cut, tort reform, reducing state debt, passage of domestic violence legislation, and quality-of-life issues.
Miller specifically underlined the endorsement of Sanford by conservation groups.
“Quality-of-life issues are very important to swing voters,” Miller said. “We are going to be very aggressive out there asking for their vote.”
Moore’s answer to the swing vote problem? Get better known.
“Moore comes from a conservative Senate district,” said campaign manager Chris Carpenter. “He has been elected and re-elected again and again, and we need for voters to get to know Moore. Once they know him, his background and experience and ability to get problems solved, they will support and vote for him.”
Moore has represented Aiken County in the General Assembly for nearly 29 years, most of it in the state Senate.
NOT TUNED IN
Swing voters account for almost a third of all voters in the state.
According to 2002 network exit polls, 41 percent of state voters identified themselves as Republicans; 35 percent, as Democrats; and 24 percent, as independents.
How many will turn out to vote is another open question.
This has been a political year slow to get started in the five mid-state swing counties.
Voters appear largely unenthusiastic about their choices. To some, it doesn’t make much difference who wins.
“You wouldn’t know there’s an election going on down here,” said Ed Rearden, a Democratic executive committee member from Edgefield. “We need some candidates to come and make some noise.”
There’s a certain resignation among the electorate. People feel isolated and powerless to influence events. They feel disconnected from the process; some lack faith in government.
Politicians, they say, aren’t addressing their concerns or problems. Instead, they engage in partisan sniping.
“People don’t feel they’re gettin’ much bang for the buck,” said Jamie Smith, a 33-year-old flag and gift shop owner from Newberry. “We need to change our politicians.”
Broadly, the voters interviewed said they are concerned about high gas prices, rising property taxes, the availability of jobs, quality health care and improving education.
In Kershaw, they are also concerned about local issues like land use and controlled growth.
“I haven’t even heard a comment about the governor’s race,” said Peter Rowland, a 50-year-old baker from Camden.
In Barnwell County, Republicans are said to be in disarray. Some even are showing up at Democratic gatherings. They are looking for a horse to ride in this election, officials say.
“It’s not as good a time to be a Republican as it once was,” said attorney Tim Moore, a Democrat.
He got no dispute from the Republicans.