U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn’s coveted, long-awaited endorsement will
give some traction to Dick Gephardt’s quest for the White House,
political experts and black officials say, but it might have lost
some of its luster.
Some say Wednesday’s show of support from South Carolina’s most
prominent black politician was overshadowed by former Vice President
Al Gore’s backing of national front-runner Howard Dean earlier in
the week.
And then there’s the Rev. Al Sharpton, who has visited the state
more than any other candidate — 22 times — and could play spoiler in
the first-in-the-South primary.
The contest also is the first test for the Democrats in a state
with a significant black population. As many as half of the votes
cast in South Carolina’s Feb. 3 primary could come from black
voters.
So, while Clyburn’s backing is important, it could end up taking
a back seat to other factors.
“People underestimate the reverend,” says state Rep. Gilda
Cobb-Hunter, a member of the Democratic National Committee from
Orangeburg. “His appeal reaches way beyond campaign organization.
His voters will come out whether they get a phone call or postcard
reminding them.
“They plan to vote, period.”
Kevin Gray, a Columbia activist and Sharpton’s former state
director, took that prediction a step further.
“Black folks are going to vote race in this primary,” Gray
said.
Two recent South Carolina polls showed U.S. Sen. John Edwards of
North Carolina leading. One had Sharpton not far behind in second,
with Gephardt in sixth place. The other had Army Gen. Wesley Clark
in second place, with Gephardt in third.
Clyburn endorsed Gephardt in a telephone conference call with
reporters Wednesday. He promised to work “tirelessly” for the
congressman.
“Dick Gephardt was always No. 1 in my heart.”
Gephardt said he was “honored and thrilled” to have Clyburn’s
endorsement.
All nine contenders had sought Clyburn’s support, making
pilgrimages to Columbia to woo the congressman. His endorsement is
supposed to galvanize a network of friends and associates, many of
them leaders in their own right.
Clyburn said he didn’t know how much weight his endorsement would
carry, but, “I do believe that those people know that I would not
identify with a candidate if I didn’t have strong feelings and
beliefs” about the person.
Clemson University professor Bruce Ransom said Clyburn’s
endorsement will cause black voters to give Gephardt more attention:
“If anything the endorsement might move some undecided voters to
Gephardt’s camp.”
Glenda Suber, a Benedict College political scientist, predicts
the black vote will split.
“The black vote is not monolithic,” she said. “There will be a
segment that will follow Clyburn’s leadership, but you will find
that there are a lot of independent-thinking black voters who can
make an informed choice on their own.”
Polls show between 22 and 32 percent of the voters remain
undecided.
Willie Legette, a political scientist at South Carolina State
University in Orangeburg, said Clyburn’s endorsement had lost some
of its luster. It was “overshadowed” by Gore’s support for Dean.
S.C. Democrats don’t typically heed endorsements, Legette said,
but this election is different. Gore is the symbol of the rage
Democrats feel toward George Bush, he said, and the passion and
opposition that both Gore and Dean have toward Bush is going to
register in the black community.
There are some risks for Clyburn in endorsing Gephardt so soon,
says Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen.
If he loses the Iowa caucuses Jan. 19, he said, it will make
Clyburn look bad.
The Gephardt-Dean battle in Iowa is one of the key political
contests on the horizon. Many experts believe Gephardt must repeat
his 1988 Iowa victory to continue his campaign for the Democratic
nomination.
Dean holds a 29-21 percent lead over Gephardt in Iowa, according
to a poll published this week by the Pew Research Center. That firm
is the one that had Gephardt trailing in third place in South
Carolina behind Edwards and Army Gen. Wesley Clark.
Reach Bandy at (803) 771-8648 or lbandy@thestate.com