The state House, abuzz with gossip that Speaker David Wilkins is bound for Canada as U.S. ambassador, is in the middle of a speaker's race that could lead to a consolidation of Lowcountry power not seen since Charleston was the state capital.

West Ashley state Rep. Bobby Harrell is one of two front-runners for speaker in a race that also includes Judiciary Chairman Jim Harrison, Speaker Pro Tem Doug Smith and Labor, Commerce and Industry Chairman Harry Cato.

The election -- if there is one -- is months away, but that hasn't stopped a tidal wave of campaigning from washing over the chamber.

"Until (Wilkins) has accepted a position, we're just talking, trying to convince the members that we're the right person for the job," Smith, R-Spartanburg, said Tuesday.

Right now, it's almost even money between Harrell and Harrison, insiders say, and with the possible election likely far off, the Republican Caucus has not yet attempted to present a unified front.

"Clearly, it would be easier for us to have one candidate to emerge, but it has not been a problem," said House Majority Leader Jim Merrill, R-Daniel Island, who met with all four candidates last week. "We wanted to make it clear to the candidates there wouldn't be any deal-making, and no one would undermine our system of governance or we as a caucus will undermine you."

While some people fear the race could overshadow the final two months of the session, most House members say there is no way to curb the campaigning, though the official position of Wilkins' office is that there has been no offer and there is no opening.

The race for speaker is more complex than simply running for office. There are geographical considerations and committee chairmanships in the balance, and there is one exquisitely delicate point: No one wants to vote publicly against the next House leader.

Then there are the numbers. With 124 House members, it takes 63 votes to become speaker. The Republican Caucus has 74 members, but Democrats hold the other 50 seats. A divided Republican Party would let the minority party have a strong say in the outcome -- and hold tremendous sway over the winner.

"If we splinter as a caucus, then we will get exactly what we deserve," says state Rep. Wallace Scarborough, R-James Island. "I don't think that's going to happen. I would think Bobby's got a clear lead right now, without a doubt."

That depends on how you count. Smith and Cato, R-Greenville, are Upstate representatives, just like Wilkins. Upstate lawmakers likely will divide their support. While Harrell has locked up the vast majority of Lowcountry support from both parties, Harrison -- who is from the Columbia area -- may pull from the Midlands and is seen by some as a good compromise.

Upstate lawmakers, in particular, think that between Gov. Mark Sanford of Sullivan's Island and Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell, R-Charleston, the Lowcountry has enough power.

Harrell is also considered a viable candidate for governor, and some lawmakers say that could work against him. House members like their speakers to stick around a while: Wilkins has held the job for more than a decade.

Harrell, however, could shatter conventional wisdom. As chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which writes the state budget, Harrell this year presided over the only budget to come out of committee with a unanimous vote. Democrats in particular praised the budget Harrell crafted this year, and that could help him pick up votes across the aisle.

Democrats, worried about offending their party or constituents, are playing their cards close to the vest. Many, however, say they believe Harrell would be fair with them.

Harrell says he's been encouraged by the feedback from his colleagues.

"If David Wilkins accepts the ambassadorship, and I believe he will be offered it, then I'm running for speaker," Harrell says. "Right now I feel pretty good about my chances, but it's a long way off."

Harrison seems to be Harrell's main competition. He has a lot of support in the Midlands, which is feeling neglected these days as the Upstate and Lowcountry divide the power.

"I'm very optimistic based on the people I've been talking to," said Harrison, R-Columbia. "I see it narrowing to a two-person race, and I'm confident I'll be one of the final two."

Democrats ultimately could decide the race. House Democratic Leader Harry Ott says the caucus is not supporting one candidate, but he has personally talked to them all.

"No deals are being made," says Ott, D-St. Matthews. "The vast majority of Democrats are uncommitted, and I'm asking them to stay uncommitted. We are in uncharted territory here. Most of us haven't been through a speaker's race."

For now, the race is likely to stay, at least on the surface, quite civil. The Republicans know they will retain the post, which makes committee assignments and runs the administrative duties of the House, and all four men know that if they don't win, they still have to work with the man who does.

"There are four good candidates, and I consider the other guys my friends," Cato said. "My goal, whoever is elected speaker, is that we stay on the right track and stay focused."