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Since his father ran for president two decades ago, South Carolina has been "Bush Country," but with the current President Bush's popularity ratings chronically well under 50 percent, some are beginning to wonder whether he's an asset or a hazard to the re-election health of Republicans.

State Sen. Larry Martin, R-Pickens, said he's "genuinely concerned."

Voters, Martin said, "are not in a good mood, and that doesn't bode well for incumbents, no matter what party they're in," then noted that most incumbents in South Carolina are Republicans.

"If Democrats are ever to win an upset in South Carolina, then it might well be in a year like 2006," said the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato. "Bush is unpopular in most states, Republican and Democratic alike, and South Carolina is no exception."

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Sabato added that Republican Gov. Mark Sanford "is still a strong favorite, but there is some long-shot potential for (challenger Tommy) Moore here. On election night, there are always a couple of races that shock everyone. Will that be one? I doubt it, but it's possible."

The August Survey USA poll showed 39 percent of Palmetto State participants approved of Bush's job performance and 59 percent disapproved. That almost matches the poll's 38-60 national figure. While the poll shows state Republicans split 72-26 over Bush, the independent swing vote is solidly disapproving, 30-67, and 90 percent of Democrats turn thumbs down.

September's poll, released last week, showed an improvement to 43-55 percent, while the national percentages were 39-55. In South Carolina, Bush's Republican support increased to 79 percent and that of independents rose to 39 percent, while Democrats were little changed at 13-87 percent favorable-unfavorable.

Bush's favorable rating in South Carolina hasn't been above 50 percent since May 2005 in Survey USA polling. Graham weighs in

Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham said the Survey USA poll "is not a little bit off, it's way off. President Bush's popularity has been and continues to be solid in South Carolina. The president is doing a better job of defining Iraq in terms of the war on terror by using the terrorists' own statements about how important Iraq is to their cause."

But, he cautioned that "for Republicans to believe there is not discontent in the ranks, much of it based upon our excessive spending habits and failure to solve immigration, would be misreading the tea leaves. Republicans, both in South Carolina and across the nation, are on the move, but by no means are we out of the woods yet."

Last week's USA Today/Gallup Poll offered better news for the president.

It showed his approval rating up to 44 percent nationally, his highest in a year. He had the support of 86 percent of Republicans, compared with 70 percent in May.

The uptick came amid a White House effort to make the war on terror the campaign's defining issue.

John Simpkins, associate director of Furman University's Richard W. Riley Institute, said he doubts Bush's ratings will affect this state's elections because "South Carolinians long have distinguished between national and state politics."

"The main reason for the president's decline -- disappointment in his handling of the war in Iraq -- is difficult to connect to candidates in close races, and those officeholders who've stood by the president either are not up for re-election or are in safe seats," Simpkins said.

Other polls down

Other polls echo Survey USA, showing Bush's favorables in dangerous territory, well under 50 percent.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal September poll had Bush at 42-49 percent favorable-unfavorable, and the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll in August was 39-56 percent.

"That's very inconsistent with my polling," said Katon Dawson, state Republican Party chairman. "President Bush is extremely popular in South Carolina," he added, dismissing as illogical any suggestion that Bush would damage the fall ticket.

Democrats are handling the situation gingerly.

"The point is that people of all political persuasions are concerned about the direction Bush is leading the nation, and there are real, legitimate concerns at the trouble we're seeing on the national and international levels," said Patrick Norton, communications director for the state Democratic Party.

Democrats' benefit?

Does that benefit Democratic candidates in South Carolina?

The sagging Bush numbers "represent the extent that people are looking for change," Norton said.

How different is 2006?

Don't look for the traditional late-October visit by a Republican president to pump up the troops.

"I would say a presidential visit is doubtful," said Kara Borie, spokeswoman for the state Republican Party, citing "a lot of competitive races around the country."

However, Rick Beltram, Spartanburg County GOP chairman, said whether Bush shows up or not, it doesn't matter.

If South Carolinians have turned against the president, "How do you explain all these people turning out for these political meetings," including the hundreds at a Saturday barbecue rally in Landrum, Beltram said.

But the old, thundering declaration, "This is Bush country," once always good for a roaring response from a crowd, is seldom heard these days.

Martin, who doesn't face re-election until 2008, said, "Thank gosh" he's not on the ballot this year. Would he want to share a platform with Bush these days? "I wouldn't feel comfortable with that, just to be blunt," he answered.

Another senator who also expressed thanks for not being on this year's ballot, Jim Ritchie, R-Spartanburg, said he expects the fallout to be felt at the congressional level rather than the state ballot.

Other GOP rifts

South Carolina Republicans have some divisions even where Bush isn't directly involved.

Just look at the number -- and heft -- of Republican groups being formed to help elect state Sen. Tommy Moore, Sanford's Democratic challenger.

Bush allies are fighting back on another front.

Angered at Graham for opposing a key element of a Bush bill governing the trials and detention of terror suspects, some are seeking to recruit U.S. Ambassador David Wilkins to challenge Graham in 2008, although Wilkins quickly threw cold water on the notion.