Sharpton likely to be a spoiler in primary

e-mail this story Dan Hoover • Edwards emphasizes race issues (02/01/04) • Democrats in state see long-term gains (01/25/04) • Kerry rebuilding his image in South Carolina (01/18/04) • Sharpton likely to be a spoiler in primary (01/11/04) • Generals at war, on paper (11/22/03)

But the flamboyant "Saturday Night Live" preacher-politician may play an outsize role in determining who wins here and, by extension, the nomination. He could also gain some bargaining chips for his message, especially if a better-than-expectations showing can be built upon in follow-up primaries.

Much depends upon how seriously black voters take him at the point of decision.

Sharpton, the choice of 12 percent in one recent South Carolina poll, is one of two blacks in the nine-person field and clearly the one with the higher profile. He has spent more campaign days in South Carolina than any other candidate.

Willie Sutton robbed banks because that's where the money was.

Sharpton goes where the votes are.

With black voters likely to constitute up to 50 percent of the turnout, Sharpton has campaigned almost exclusively at black churches and historically black institutions of higher learning.

Sharp divisions

Black politicians are sharply divided in the primary, the Upstate being illustrative of that.

Greenville's three black legislators are in different camps. Reps. Fletcher Smith and Karl Allen are supporting Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, respectively, and Sen. Ralph Anderson is with Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt. And Gephardt has the biggest prize of all in fellow Rep. Jim Clyburn, South Carolina's most powerful black political figure.

The other major candidates can point to their own brand-name black supporters. Converting that to rank-and-file votes is another matter.

The primary, the first in the South this cycle, should be a study in the value of endorsements, and Sharpton just could make a shambles of the concept should he hit a double-digit percentage.

A non-winning but strong showing by Sharpton, with its concentration of black votes, could play havoc with order of finish and with it, the momentum for the next week's round of primaries.

And beyond ...

More influence?

Sharpton could also emerge in a position to bring the eventual nominee to him seeking his support, support that would come with strings, said Adolphus Belk, a Winthrop University political scientist.

"If he's trying to exercise leverage over the nominee, then this situation may lend itself to Sharpton's advantage," Belk said. "It's a strategy that was employed by Jesse Jackson in '84 and '88, especially, that by garnering a certain level of support, he can turn to the party and say, 'There are issues that are important to the constituency I represent and these issues should be taken into consideration in the party's platform.'"

Who would be helped or hurt the most isn't clear, but a solid percentage of black votes for Sharpton and fragmentation of the remainder would seem to work to the advantage of the front-runner, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. He hasn't shown the broad black presence at his events that say, Gephardt and Edwards, have.

What many black voters are almost certain to ponder before, en route and maybe even in the voting booth, is the meaning of their ballots.

For those who want to send a message to the party's establishment that they want a candidate who speaks to their concerns and whose interest in their needs extends beyond election day, Sharpton provides a logical alternative. Carol Moseley-Braun, too, although the former Illinois senator lacks Sharpton's charisma and name ID.

'Tough call'

For those who want to pick someone they believe can successfully challenge President Bush in November and don't want to cast a throwaway vote, there are five major candidates from which to choose. Six, for those who would include the almost invisible Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.

"That's a valid question," said the Rev. Caesar Richburg, pastor of Greenville's Allen Temple AME Church.

Richburg, who's keeping his personal preference to himself, said, "It is sending a message to the other candidates that this man (Sharpton) may not have a chance to win, but at least he's articulating what the concerns are and you're not doing it, so take a look at what he's saying."

Pollster John Zogby touches on this in Web site commentary stemming from his December poll showing Sharpton, Gephardt and Edwards tied for fourth place in South Carolina at 7 percentage points each.

Zogby found that 65 percent of the likely Democratic voters said it is "more important" to nominate a candidate who stands for their beliefs.

The choice facing black voters, Richburg said, is "a tough call."

Dan Hoover's column appears on Sunday. He can be reached at (864) 298-4883 or toll-free at (800) 274-7879, extension 4883, and by fax at (864) 298-4395.