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Article published Jan 15, 2004
Dean leading S.C. race
Tony Taylor
Staff
Writer
A poll released Wednesday suggests South Carolina's
Democratic presidential primary is a wide-open race.The poll, conducted by
InsiderAdvantage, had a sample size of 300 likely voters with a margin of error
of 6 percent.Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean led all candidates taking part in
the state's Feb. 3 primary with 12 percent.Retired U.S. Army Gen. Wesley Clark
and U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina placed second with 9 percent
each.But 50 percent of those polled were undecided.Political analysts said
undecided voters are common in polls released early in campaigns and projections
often turn out to be unreliable."At this point in the campaign, it's too early,"
said Robert Jeffrey, a government professor at Wofford College. "You can't take
your guidance from these polls."Representatives from the Dean campaign said they
were taking a cautious approach to the poll."Of course we're always pleased to
be leading in any poll," said Delacy Skimmer, a Dean spokeswoman. "But we are
very aware that a poll isnot votes."Clark representatives agreed the poll was
released too early to be an indicator of how the primary will play out.But the
Clark camp agreed with some of the findings."We always take all polls with a
grain of salt," said Meighan Stone, a Clark spokeswoman. "But this does show
it's a two-man race nationally and it shows the momentum we have going through
the South."Matt Towery, InsiderAdvantage chairman and a Creators Syndicate
columnist, said the poll shows Clark is fairing better in the South than most
candidates.Researchers also polled respondents in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi,
Louisiana and Tennessee.Dean led all candidates with 15 percent. Clark was
second with 10 percent.The regional poll had a sample size of 800 with a margin
of error of 3 percent.Dean was the favorite of Democratic voters with 18 percent
of the respondents. Clark was second with 12 percent.While some might be
surprised to learn a liberal New England governor is leading the polls in most
Southern states, analysts said Dean's dominance is part of a national
trend."It's not unusual, given the lead he has nationally," Jeffrey said. "A lot
of voters in South Carolina are just as national as other Democratic
voters."Despite strong numbers in South Carolina, Edwards received little
support in other Southern states.Only 2 percent of the respondents said they
planned to vote for Edwards."That's what is really unique about South Carolina,"
Towery said. "It's the only state that John Edwards is showing up as a
legitimate candidate."Edwards has been surging of late in Iowa, where polls show
him placing as high as third."We have always said we need to do well in Iowa and
New Hampshire in order to win, and polls show we are headed in the right
direction," said Jenni Engebretsen, an Edwards spokeswoman. "We have created a
tremendous amount of momentum."Towery said a strong showing by Clark or Edwards
in Iowa or New Hampshire could help either candidate be competitive in South
Carolina."If that happens, it's a whole new ball game," Towery said. "It changes
everything."Tony Taylor can be reached at 562-7219 or tony.taylor@shj.com