Allen visit highlights SC nomination role

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It's a message that isn't lost on the many Republicans with a yen to succeed President Bush when his second and constitutionally final term ends Jan. 20, 2009.

With the state GOP again set to hold the first Southern primary and third head-to-head Republican contest after the 2008 Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, would-be successors have been beating a path to the state.

On Friday, Virginia Sen. George Allen will address Greenville Republicans in a nationally televised event sandwiched between an earlier appearance in Columbia and a Saturday stop in Charleston. It's his third visit to the state in 16 months. With him will be his wife, Susan, a University of South Carolina alumna.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee has already made four trips, and former New York Mayor Rudolph Guiliani and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, at least one each. Romney has donated thousands of dollars to county party organizations, too.

Arizona Sen. John McCain, who lost a ferocious 2000 primary to Bush, is another possibility.

The Greenville event is set for 6:30 p.m. at the Hyatt Regency.

Allen told The Greenville News on Tuesday that his remarks will focus on the need for education improvements that make the U.S. more economically competitive, an energy policy to reduce dependence on foreign oil, and federal judges who shun an activist role.

He said Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada's suggestion that Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, would be a U.S. Supreme Court nominee acceptable to Democrats was "just general misdirection. I think Lindsey would feel so constrained being a judge — he likes being in the action."

Graham has disavowed any interest in the seat of retiring Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.

Allen said he hopes President Bush will nominate a strict constructionist to succeed retiring Supreme Court Associate Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, "someone who will apply the law, not invent it (or) amend the Constitution by (judicial) decree."

The Upstate almost certainly will come in from inordinate attention from Allen & Co.

In heavily Republican South Carolina, Greenville and its neighboring Upstate counties can be counted on for 30 percent of the state's presidential primary vote.

Allen and the others know that South Carolina is a small state with a big reputation for picking winners.

Since 1980, when Ronald Reagan devastated his opponents, South Carolina has propelled its primary winners to presidential nominations or saved their political hides after embarrassments in New Hampshire. Or both.

Allen said, "It's been pointed out by history that you've got to win South Carolina."

Democrats hope to get into the act again having held an early and largely successful primary in 2004.

Not since 1952 when President Harry Truman and Vice President Alben Barkley retired, will America's voters have faced a similar situation. Bush is barred from a third term and Vice President Dick Cheney has said he won't seek the nomination.

"It's the most truly open presidential campaign any of us can remember," said Joe Erwin, state Democratic Party chairman.

"There's a very good chance we will be first in the South again," he said.

But Erwin may have less flexibility than his Republican counterpart, Katon Dawson.

Only South Carolina and Utah have party-financed presidential primaries. Where Dawson has authority from his executive committee to set the GOP's date, Erwin must await a commission's recommendations to the Democratic National Committee.

Dawson said that until dates are locked in next March, "Things will stay fluid."

He declined to speculate on a date, but said it will follow Iowa's January caucuses and New Hampshire's February primary. If those states go earlier, "We'll pull out the dog sleds and go through the snow to have our primary."

It again will be the South's first and the nation's third contest, Dawson said.

Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, has called the South Carolina primaries "an irresistible opportunity for the truly ambitious."

Stephen H. Wainscott, director of the Calhoun Honors College at Clemson University, said Democrats have a big stake in South Carolina.

"Democrats need to showcase this state for party promotional purposes if nothing else. But of greater importance is challenging the notion, which seemed prevalent in party circles in 2004, that a Democratic version of the (GOP's) 'Southern strategy' is fruitless," he said.

South Carolina's argument for an early Democratic primary isn't much different from the GOP's, that it's a larger, far more diverse state than the traditional openers, Iowa and New Hampshire.

Erwin envisions a hard-fought contest — to demonstrate the ability to win Southern votes — built around the 2004 primary winner, Seneca native John Edwards, the party's vice presidential nominee, plus Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Joseph Biden of Delaware.

Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 nominee, is also sounding like he's ready to re-up.

Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.