Wilkins speculation stirs GOP, Democrats

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A quartet of Republicans is poised in the wings should Wilkins depart, along with one Democrat.

While woefully outnumbered Democrats couldn't elect one of their own, they could hold the balance of power — and some strong bargaining chips — in a divided Republican race to replace Wilkins if a vacancy occurs.

Wilkins dismissed the speculation as "old rumors" that he wouldn't address.

Speculation mounted with the anticipated visit next week of President George W. Bush. Wilkins was Bush's 2004 South Carolina re-election campaign chairman.

Wilkins has already turned down one proffered ambassadorship to Chile and a federal judgeship, but accepted an appointment to the U.S. Military Academy Board of Visitors. The latter involves four quarterly one or two-day meetings.

"All I know is it's the big rumor,' said Democratic Rep. Herb Kirsh, a 25-year incumbent from Clover. "I've asked a few Republicans and they really think he's going to leave this time."

"He's the only one denying it right now," said Rep. James Smith, D-Columbia, a former House minority leader. As Smith spoke by phone with a reporter, he said he was preparing to return calls from potential Republican candidates for speaker.

"Everybody's off and running like crazy," he said.

Smith and others said the speculation involved nominations for ambassador to Canada or a NATO post in Europe.

The four Republicans who would likely run if Wilkins leaves are Speaker Pro Tem Doug Smith of Spartanburg, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bobby Harrell of Charleston, Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Harrison and Harry Cato of Travelers Rest, Labor, Commerce and Industry Committee chairman.

For potential bargaining purposes, former Democratic minority leader Doug Jennings of Bennettsville is expected to join the field.

Cato said that when the speculation started, "We start looking around to see if we need to start campaigning or not."

While Wilkins has sought to throw cold water on the speculation, Cato said it has largely been ongoing since the session started in January, but intensified in recent days with President Bush expected address to a joint session next week.

"Most of the conversation comes from our key supporters," Cato said. "For the most part, the four of us do a good job of not stirring it too much, but the activity comes from those who would support us — or just find out what's going on.

"We can't walk down the hall now without being grabbed and someone saying, 'Are you doing something? You'd better be,'" he said.

Cato said he doesn't know if another offer has been extended to Wilkins, "but I think if David Wilkins wants something there is something out there at some time. I don't know if this is it, if the rumors are true."

Cato said Democrats "are trying to play the numbers" and the possibility they could decide the outcome for a badly split Republican caucus.

"Nobody's asked for anything, but I'm sure they have something in mind," he said.

There are 74 House Republicans and 50 Democrats.

Kirsh said that a Jennings candidacy could extract some concessions from Republicans who have mostly shut Democrats out of the process. Among them, he said, would be giving the minority leader the power to select the Democratic member of each three-person conference committee and more consideration on committee appointments.

Smith described it as a golden opportunity, "not a power grab," for South Carolina's House Democrats to win back "some institutional authority."

He said a mid-session departure of Wilkins and election of a new speaker would have a serious impact on pending legislation because it would soak up members' "energies and attention."

Wilkins was Judiciary Committee chairman when he was elected speaker at the 1994 elections from which the GOP emerged with near parity with the Democrats, then won the majority as some conservative Democrats switched parties.

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Dan Hoover covers politics and can be reached at 298-4883.