Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride isn't saying whether he will run for a third term in November, perhaps because that election is 11 months away. But it's reasonable to wonder now whether his rapport with city voters remains strong enough to carry him through to victory this year if he does decide to run.

Myrtle Beach City Councilwoman Judy Rodman effectively raised this question Tuesday with her announcement she'll seek the mayoralty in November. McBride's last opponent for mayor, Wayne Gray, also was on the council when he challenged McBride's 2001 re-election bid. Gray lost, but Rodman's prospects against McBride (if he does run) could be better, for two reasons:

Her low-key style, her competence as a council member and her lack of political baggage (a negative factor for Gray) will make her an attractive candidate to many city voters.

McBride's petulant bad-boy style of conducting the city's chief ceremonial office may have worn thin with some voters. It now should be obvious to all that he lacks the capacity to use his "bully pulpit" powers to build a City Council governing coalition to reshape city government as he would like it to be.

Rodman, however, is only the first candidate to declare for the mayor's office. Horry County Councilman Marion Foxworth of the Withers Swash neighborhood also has expressed interest in the office. If he runs, he could be a formidable candidate - not least because his political roots run deep beneath the south end of the city, which has chronically been underrepresented on City Council.

Thanks to the council's at-large electoral system, six of the seven members live in the wealthier neighborhoods north of 48th Avenue North. Only Councilman Mike Chestnut lives south of that line of demarcation between have-mores and have-lesses.

Foxworth might not run for mayor if the S.C. Supreme Court upholds his petition for a new election in Horry County Council District 3 and he wins such an election. His opponent in the Nov. 2 election, Joe DeFeo of Myrtle Beach, won by 37 votes, but Foxworth persuaded the Horry County and S.C. election commissions that voting irregularities warranted a new election - decisions DeFeo is challenging before the high court.

If Foxworth does run for mayor and galvanizes south-end voters to support him, he might at least force a runoff (assuming that there are more than two candidates) and could win the mayoralty outright - even if McBride is in the race. Certainly, he can make a good argument that southern neighborhoods deserve more public resources, giving south-of-48th residents a strong reason to support him.

None of this is to predict that the McBride era at City Hall will come to an end in November. Such a prediction would be naive, even foolish, given the unknowable variables that affect election outcomes this far from Election Day.

The purpose here is to underscore what's always true in local politics: that the issues voters care about most change over time. With those changes, candidates who were politically viable in the last election might lose voter traction in the election to come - especially if new candidates can offer messages that inspire public support. If McBride risks another candidacy, he well might find Myrtle Beach voters ready to try a new style of city leadership.