Strand breathes sigh of relief as Isabel passes

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Tropical storm watches were posted along the South Carolina coast from the Santee River near Georgetown north to the Little River Inlet along the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

Sharan Majumdar, an assistant professor and hurricane expert at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Fla., said it is unusual that so many of the computer models agree on where the storm is heading.

"With Hurricane Floyd, at this stage, the model guidance was decent, but there was a lot of uncertainty," he said. "It could have struck anywhere from central Florida to North Carolina."

Evidence of Isabel reached North Myrtle Beach Tuesday, as six-foot swells pounded the beach by mid-day.

"We are breathing a little sigh of relief because it looks like we're out of the woods," Fire Chief Tom Barstow said.

Late Tuesday night, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm was 545 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. and moving north-northwest at 8 m.p.h.

Top sustained winds have dropped dramatically from last weekend's Category 5-strength of 165 m.p.h. to 110 m.p.h. Tuesday afternoon. That left Isabel as a strong Category 2 storm still capable of causing major damage. The storm is not expected to strengthen before landfall, according to forecasters.

The National Weather Service also predicted seas could reach 22 feet in North Carolina and up to 18 feet along the South Carolina coast.

A tropical storm or hurricane watch is issued when storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. When those watches are upgraded to warnings, storm conditions are expected within 24 hours.

The storm is expected to strike the Outer Banks east of Morehead City during mid-day Thursday, which experts said was favorable because the brunt of the storm will miss the heavily populated areas of Wilmington and Myrtle Beach. Morehead City is more than 150 miles from Myrtle Beach.

Floyd struck North Carolina in 1999 and caused massive flooding in that state and along the Pee Dee in South Carolina. It was the last major hurricane to threaten the mid-Atlantic coast. Floyd caused 56 deaths and $4.6 billion in damage.

Isabel is a monster storm and intensified slightly Tuesday night. Tropical storm-force winds, between 45 and 74 m.p.h., extend 260 miles out from the center. Hurricane-force winds, anything above 74 m.p.h., extend 145 miles from the center, according to the Hurricane Center.

Douglas Hoehler, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Wilmington, N.C., said Tuesday that Myrtle Beach can expect winds of 25 to 35 m.p.h. — not nearing tropical storm strength — and one to two inches of rain. Hurricane force winds and two to four inches of rain are expected to hit the North Carolina coast beginning Thursday morning.

Throughout North Carolina's Outer Banks, cars, RVs and SUVs streamed inland as more than 100,000 people were ordered to evacuate, according to The Associated Press.

"If it was a five, I be gone. If it was a four, I'd be gone. But right now it's looking like a two or less," David Kidwell, a 64-year-old retiree who is staying put at his home in Kitty Hawk, told the AP. "That's just nothing more than a big nor'easter as far as I'm concerned."

National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake said people should not let their guard down even though the storm was weakening.

"Hurricanes are notorious for gaining strength as they cross the Gulf Stream," he said. Even at a Category 2, "there's still a lot of potential for danger."

The AP also reported that Navy ships manned by 13,000 sailors headed out to sea from Norfolk, Va., and Earle, N.J., to ride out the storm and keep from being battered against their piers. Military aircraft were flown to airfields inland. And in Atlantic City, N.J., Miss America Pageant officials said they were prepared to postpone Friday's Boardwalk parade and even the pageant itself on Saturday, if necessary.

Susan Cutter, director of the University of South Carolina's Hazards Research Laboratory, said she is concerned that the track of the storm will take it over eastern North Carolina, Virginia, Washington, D.C., and eastern Pennsylvania — all places where summer rains have saturated the soil, leaving them vulnerable to flooding.

Isabel continued to move slowly throughout the day Tuesday, which Majumdar said was a big benefit to coastal residents. Along with having more time to prepare for the storm, Isabel's slow movement also helped weaken it.

By not moving rapidly to the north, strong winds from the west were cutting Isabel apart, and the core of the storm disintegrated overnight Monday and throughout Tuesday morning. In addition, Majumdar said, the slow movement was churning up water beneath the storm, bringing colder water to the surface. Hurricanes need warm water to strengthen.

The scare the storm put into North Myrtle Beach wasn't all lost, however. Barstow said his town just finished a new emergency management facility and only received its new backup radio system last week. The drill gave them a chance to make sure everything was operating as it was supposed to.

"Our fail-safe system works," he said.

Not everyone is relaxing, however. Randy Webster, emergency coordinator for Horry County, said no matter what the forecasters say, he will keep a wary eye until the storm has passed.

"We're watching the storm, taking precautions, talking to the state and other coastal counties, but that's about it," he said.

Jason Zacher covers the environment and can be reached at 298-4272.