Charleston, S.C. —
Rudy Giuliani could not have picked a
better time to come to South Carolina. As the
former New York mayor walked into Hibernian Hall
here in Charleston Wednesday night, the foiled
London terror plot, still unfolding, was on
everyone’s mind. That, in turn, reminded
everyone of September 11. And that reminded them
of…Rudy Giuliani.
And there
he was. Giuliani had come to Charleston, and,
earlier in the day, to Greenville, to raise
money for Republican candidates facing voters
this November. But one doesn’t have to be in
South Carolina long to realize that the 2008
Republican presidential race is in full force
here. John McCain was in Columbia yesterday, in
Myrtle Beach today; Mitt Romney is here every
other day or so, it seems, and the other
candidates show up with increasing regularity.
This was Giuliani’s first trip to South Carolina
in that heated political context, and his first
order of business was to explain that his visit
had nothing to do with 2008.
“My
objective is to do everything I can in 2006 to
elect Republican candidates,” Giuliani told
reporters. “A lot of people are looking forward
to 2008, but I’m looking to 2006 right now. The
country has to be governed between 2006 and
2008, and all Republicans should be focused on
making sure we do as well as we can this
year.”
There’s no doubt Giuliani is doing
a lot to support GOP candidates all around the
country. But that’s what everybody is doing at
this stage of the game; the (undeclared)
presidential candidate comes to the state to
help local candidates, and in the process gets
to know the major politicos and money people who
are, it happens, trying to decide who they will
support in 2008. So yes, Giuliani’s visit was
about 2006, but it was most certainly about
2008, too.
And coming at this particular
moment allowed the Giuliani of 9/11 to play to
his strengths. When he met reporters at the
Mills House hotel shortly before the fundraiser,
the first question — and the second, and the
third, and the fourth, and the fifth, and the
sixth — was about terrorism and national
security. What did he think about accusations
that the White House was playing politics with
the London terror arrests? How safe are our
ports? What will he do on the fifth anniversary
of 9/11? Why hasn’t Osama bin Laden been caught?
Has he seen
World Trade Center? (He
has, by the way, and found it “difficult to
watch” but a “very fine movie.”)
All the
questions allowed Giuliani to speak, with real
authority, on the issue of terrorism. He used
the opportunity not to talk himself up but to
praise George W. Bush — whatever his problems,
the president has very high positive ratings
among South Carolina Republicans. After the news
conference, when Giuliani went next door to
Hibernian Hall to greet 200 GOP contributors
gathered for the fundraiser, he explained at
some length why Republicans have to stay behind
Bush. His reason came down to this: Republicans
support the war on terror and Democrats don’t.
“It is really important that the war be carried
on in the way President Bush envisioned it,”
Giuliani told the crowd.
He changed our policy from
essentially being on defense against terrorism
to being on offense. It was, I think, something
that will gain him a great place in history for
having done that. But I think even more
important than that, and the thing that has been
more difficult to do, hasn’t been to make that
change in policy, but to stick to it. It has
proven at times to be difficult. Things like
this are always difficult, and you need a strong
leader to do it. That’s why it’s so important
that he continue to have the support that he
needs in order to carry on that effort against
terrorism. And the simple fact is, by and large,
Republicans support it. And by and large, as the
Democratic primary in Connecticut proved,
Democrats don’t. Democrats who think the way we
do get voted out of office, or at least they get
voted out of office by their party. So this is a
legitimate political issue. We should not be
intimidated by people saying we are playing
politics.
Given
that, Giuliani said, “Republicans shouldn’t run
away from President Bush. It makes no sense at
all. Republicans should embrace him.”
That’s the kind of thing
Republican crowds in South Carolina love to
hear. They’re also happy with what Giuliani has
to say about a number of other key issues. On
Iraq, Giuliani told the group, “I always
believed, during the 2004 election, that John
Kerry really wanted to pull out of Iraq, and he
just didn’t say it. And I think a lot of the
Democratic party is in that mindset, that we
have to pull out of Iraq. And I think that would
be a terrible mistake, to cut and run.” On the
economy, Giuliani gave as whole-hearted an
endorsement of tax cuts and supply-side
economics as you’ll find this side of Jack Kemp.
On education, he talked about vouchers and
charter schools. And no one in America has more
credibility to talk about fighting
crime.
But there were two issues Giuliani
didn’t bring up in South Carolina. His positions
on abortion and gay rights — pro-choice,
pro-civil unions — are famously at odds with
those of social conservatives who make up a
large part of the South Carolina GOP primary
electorate. The question for Giuliani is how
much that will matter.
“There are certain
prerequisites that a candidate has to have to
get to the point of even being seriously
considered in South Carolina,” says Oran Smith,
head of the Palmetto Family Council, an
organization affiliated with James Dobson’s
Focus on the Family. “Gay rights, abortion, guns
[Giuliani is pro-gun control] — any one of them
would be a disqualifier, but the three of them
together are absolutely insurmountable.”
There’s no doubt that some South
Carolina voters agree wholeheartedly. But how
many? There are no solid numbers, but Smith —
along with several other political observers —
believes the group is pretty big. “If you were
to say, What percentage of South Carolina voters
are value voters, that would probably be as high
as 70 percent,” Smith says. “But as far as those
who see some of these issues as disqualifiers, I
think that number would be in the 40 to 50
percent range. I don’t think you can say that
the number of people who are motivated even
partially by social issues falls below 40
percent.”
That’s certainly true in some
parts of South Carolina, but one might expect
people in Charleston, traditionally a bit less
conservative than the rest of the state, to
disagree. But maybe not. Cyndi Mosteller,
chairman of the Charleston County Republicans,
says, “The good thing about Rudy Giuliani is you
know exactly where he stands, but it’s not in
sync with where a lot of Republican activists
are on the social issues, the issue of right to
life, and issues of marriage.”
But here’s
the puzzling thing. If there are so many social
conservatives in South Carolina, and if they are
deeply concerned about Giuliani’s position on
the social issues, one might expect them to
bring those issues up when Giuliani visits. But
they don’t. Giuliani spent a full day talking to
Republicans around the state on Wednesday, and
he faced exactly one question about it. And that
question was from…me. When he met reporters at
the Mills House — after all those questions on
terrorism and national security — I asked
Giuliani what he told South Carolina Republicans
who asked about his positions on abortion and
gay rights.
“Nobody brought it up,”
Giuliani said with a laugh. “We went to a pretty
extensive one-hour roundtable discussion with a
group of Republicans. I would say the same
things I say in New York if those issues come
up. They haven’t come up. I’d also say that
right now they’re not the main
issues.”
That evening, Giuliani went on
to attend another roundtable with Republican
donors, and nobody brought up the social issues
there, either. And after his speech at Hibernian
Hall, he took a number of questions from the
audience, and nobody said a word about abortion
or gay marriage. If South Carolinians are deeply
concerned about the issues, they’re not
confronting Giuliani with their worries.
The reason, some people close to
Giuliani believe, is that September 11 created a
new dynamic in Republican politics. “I don’t
think social issues are at the forefront of
people’s minds when they’re thinking about who
they want to be their next president,” says a
source in the Giuliani circle. “People are
concerned about really basic, big issues —
issues of war and peace, literally. The days of
the tail wagging the dog on social issues are
over. It’s not that people don’t care about
them, it’s just that they have a new take on
prioritizing.”
Maybe so. Certainly
Giuliani wouldn’t enjoy the rock-star reception
he gets in the South without the 9/11 aura. But
there may be a simpler reason for the silence of
the southerners. And that reason is, at this
early stage in the presidential race, it’s just
not yet time to bring the troublesome issues up.
“There a sense of gentility, and people are not
going to make someone feel uncomfortable or say
something that will embarrass,” says Oran Smith.
“When we start to get down to what we believe,
that’s when the gloves come off and the
gentility goes away.”
So which is it? Are social
issues less important, or will they come on
strong in due time? No one will know the answer
to that question for a while, but there are also
more practical aspects that can determine the
success of a presidential campaign. And in South
Carolina, even at this very early point in the
race, Giuliani appears to be substantially
behind other Republican
candidates.
There’s no doubt Giuliani’s
visit to Charleston looked
presidential. There was a lot of security,
a lot of men in suits with earpieces. His
entourage included staffers from Solutions
America, Giuliani’s political action committee,
and from Giuliani’s company, Giuliani Partners.
(The group included Chris Henick, the former top
aide to Karl Rove, who joined the firm in 2003.)
But that’s a traveling group. In terms of an
organization on the ground in South Carolina,
Giuliani doesn’t really have one.
Compare
that to his fellow front-running rival, Sen.
John McCain. The news in South Carolina
political circles in the last few weeks has been
the number of prominent state politicos who have
signed up with McCain. There’s the attorney
general, Henry McMaster, who was once thought to
be closer to Giuliani than McCain. The two were
U.S. attorneys together years ago, and Giuliani
describes McMaster as a good friend, but on
Wednesday McMaster told the South Carolina
newspaper The State that, “I think Rudy
would be a superb candidate, but my choice right
now is for Sen. John McCain.”
McCain has also locked up
the former attorney general, Charlie
Condon, as well as Bob McAlister, the former top
aide to legendary governor Carroll Campbell. And
of course, there’s the current governor, Mark
Sanford, who backed McCain in 2000 but can’t
jump on the bandwagon again until he wins
re-election in November. (Sanford’s wife Jenny
came to the Giuliani fundraiser, explaining her
husband couldn’t make it.) And, finally, there’s
Sen. Lindsey Graham, who is so close to McCain
that during a recent visit to Columbia, McCain
absentmindedly referred to Graham as “Cindy” —
the name of McCain’s wife.
All in all,
it’s a pretty strong lineup, all behind McCain.
But Giuliani argues it won’t matter in the long
run. Asked when he needs to get a team together,
he said, “After the 2006 election. I really
don’t think you should get in the way of the
2006 election. There’s plenty of time.” Perhaps
that’s true. But Giuliani is already gambling
that he can persuade South Carolinians to accept
his positions on some of the most contentious
issues in politics. Even if that is possible,
the job could take some time — perhaps more than
Giuliani has given himself.
—
Byron York,
NR’s White House
correspondent, is the author of the book The
Vast Left Wing Conspiracy: The Untold Story of
How Democratic Operatives, Eccentric
Billionaires, Liberal Activists, and Assorted
Celebrities Tried to Bring Down a President —
and Why They’ll Try Even Harder Next
Time.