Mayfield warns coast overdue for major hurricane

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. - The coastline of the United States is long overdue for a major hurricane, despite a period of increased activity during the past decade, Max Mayfield, the director of the National Hurricane Center warned on Wednesday.

"We have really been lucky in the United States," Mayfield told annual Hurricane/Emergency Management workshop sponsored by the state Emergency Management Division.

With rapid growth along the coast "the United States of America is more vulnerable to a hurricane than ever before."

Mayfield noted that since 1995, 32 major hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin. Based on historic averages, one might expect at least a third of those to hit the coastline. But only three have, Mayfield said.

It's been almost 15 years since the last major hurricane in South Carolina - Hurricane Hugo and its 135 mph winds in 1989.

Like South Carolina, the coasts of other states are growing rapidly.

"I've been to every state, Texas to Maine. We've got nearly 50 million people living in coastal counties and we have more people at risk - more homes and more hotels like this on the beach," he said.

For the first time last year, the National Hurricane Center began releasing five-day forecasts for the tracks of hurricanes. It went well, although there were some concerns from people in the tourism industry who worried the long-range forecast might needlessly keep people away from the coast.

Mayfield said the answer is education and working with the media in stressing that the five-day forecast is a long-range projection for planning.

More troublesome, Mayfield said, is the uncertainty in predicting the strength of hurricanes. He said the National Hurricane Center has embarked on a 10-year-program to increase the accuracy of intensity predictions.

"My greatest fear is that people go to bed preparing for a Category I hurricane or a tropical storm and wake up to a Hugo or an Andrew," he said.

Earlier, emergency preparedness officials from across the state were told while the federal government is dealing with terrorism and maintaining homeland security, it is not ignoring the need to be prepared for natural disasters.

"We know we're going to have hurricanes. We know we are going to have tornadoes. We know we are going to have floods," said David Paulison, the director of the Preparedness Division of the Federal Emergency Management Agency within the Department of Homeland Security.

"We are not going to abandon what we know will happen every year in America," he said.

The key to dealing with any disaster, be it terrorism or a natural disaster, is training and being prepared, he said, urging police and fire and emergency agencies to plan and train together.

"You should already be on a first-name basis" before a disaster hits, he said.