Joe Lieberman of Connecticut has called South Carolina his "turnaround state."

John Edwards of North Carolina has made it a "must-win" state for him.

And John Kerry of Massachusetts, for insurance purposes, has started building a "firewall" here.

The other seven aren't saying much. But it matters not.

South Carolina is going to be a make-or-break state for whoever is left in the Democratic presidential race after the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary. That could be as many as five or as few as three.

"It's going to be a death struggle in South Carolina," says Rice University political scientist Earl Black.

The Palmetto State will have a major say in the selection of the Democrat to oppose President Bush in 2004. Some go so far as to suggest that S.C. voters will pick the nominee.

"South Carolina will be the defining moment of the primary season," says former state Democratic Party Chairman Dick Harpootlian.

After South Carolina's Feb. 3 primary, he expects the field to be narrowed down to two candidates. "We'll pick the next president of the United States," Harpootlian says.

Right now, the contest is wide open.

Recent polls show Edwards leading in the Carolinas, but it's not anything to write home about. A Sept. 2-3 survey taken by Zogby International had him out front with 10 percent of the vote.

But the most telling statistic from that poll - and many like it - is this: 46 percent undecided.

"This campaign is not even on the radar screen in South Carolina," Zogby notes. "Nobody has the edge, and it looks like South Carolina will be shaped by Iowa and New Hampshire."

In this kind of vacuum, he says, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark could seize the moderate mantle.

South Carolina's first-in-the-South primary is critical. It's the first contest in which black voters will play a significant role.

"It will be the first opportunity for the candidates to demonstrate strength in the black community and among working-class white people," Harpootlian says.

Blacks could make up a majority of the primary vote, by some estimates.

With its more diverse racial mix, South Carolina is more representative of a cross-section of America than Iowa and New Hampshire, where former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is seen as the front-runner.

But a trend that begins in those early contests may be tough to break. The [momentum] starts in Iowa.

Black says whoever wins New Hampshire will have a huge head of steam coming into South Carolina. "Right now, that looks like Dean," he says.

University of Virginia analyst Larry Sabato says the electricity surrounding Dean is so intense that it will take a major break for another candidate to snatch the prize from him.

Who can stop him?

Most likely, Sabato suggests, it will be the "steady-if-boring" Dick Gephardt or the "heroic-if-aloof" Kerry. Lieberman is too conservative to get the nomination, he says.

Edwards' challenge "is to convince Democrats that he has got the experience and wherewithal to be president," says Winthrop University professor Scott Huffmon.

"Everything hinges on what happens in South Carolina," Huffmon says. "We're important."