Good news, bad news for Edwards

e-mail this story Dan Hoover • Metro areas alter South's political landscape (09/28/03) • Good news, bad news for Edwards (09/20/03) • Faith's optimism on auto park tempered by Sanford (08/24/03) • GOP gleeful at possible Dem strife (08/16/03) • GOP runoff grows more likely in 4th District (08/02/03)

Having said he won't run for a second term in order to focus full attention on winning the Democratic presidential nomination, Edwards now must develop broader support in early and mid-primary states and go all-out to carry his neighboring and native state, South Carolina.

Few analysts believe Edwards can survive middle- or back-of-the-pack finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire and failure to win South Carolina, the third major head-to-head encounter.

With Edwards' formal declaration of candidacy — after nearly two years of campaigning — the numbers are bad nationally, but mildly promising in South Carolina.

Edwards' campaign cited "growing nationwide support for his candidacy" as a reason for sticking solely with the presidential race.

What polls are they reading?

Low numbers

Edwards consistently shows in the mid-single digits nationally. A Sept. 8-10 Gallup Poll showed him fifth, at 5 percent, among registered and likely Democratic voters nationwide.

He's unlikely to eclipse Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses and surging former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean or Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in New Hampshire on Jan. 27, a week before South Carolina.

The bright spot is a post-Labor Day poll in South Carolina by Zogby Research showing that Edwards had moved into the lead, 10 percent to 9 percent for Dean. It also showed that 6 percent favored none of the then nine candidates and 46 percent remained undecided.

"He's got to break through," said Bruce Ransom of Clemson University's Strom Thurmond Institute.

Presidential primaries are often a game of expectations, and losing where it appears you should win can be devastating.

George W. Bush was upset in the New Hampshire primary in 2000, but he fell back on his South Carolina firewall to crush Arizona Sen. John McCain's hopes.

For Edwards, a Seneca native, South Carolina will have to be his firewall.

Ransom said Edwards' move in South Carolina is perhaps "an indication of where he's concentrating and hitting the airwaves," creating the circumstances where he could become a top-tier candidate by winning here, combined with strong showings in some of that day's five other contests.

Drag removed

By renouncing re-election, Edwards may have removed a drag on his presidential candidacy.

It's a plus because "people think he's definitely in for the long haul," said Greenville attorney Doug Dent, an early Edwards backer. "It puts an end to the discussion that he'd pull out at some point and run for the Senate and allows the campaign to focus totally on the presidential race."

ù To Rep. James Smith, D-Columbia, the state House minority leader, "it does show his commitment" and undermines those who might have thought Edwards was running for vice president. "It only adds to his credibility."

Smith said the move should help end fears within the party that his delaying of the re-election disavowal could "put another Southern Democratic seat in jeopardy."

It's immaterial, said Larry Sabato, University of Virginia author and presidential scholar.

Too little, too late, Sabato said.

"It probably gives that seat to the Republicans."

Seat gone?

What's a downer for the national party, though, may be a boost for Edwards, he agrees.

"This also demonstrates Edwards' presidential fire in the belly and sends a signal he's in it for the long haul, that he really believes he can win. It would be stupid, otherwise, to give up a U.S. Senate seat when you're a young man, if you thought you might not win the presidency."

Back to the larger question: Can the Democrats hold his seat, one that has developed a recent back-and-forth history? Recent voting patterns aren't on their side.

Once a model of typical Southern long-term stability, it has been in flux for a generation.

From 1903 through 1974, four men were elected to it. Since 1974, when Sam Ervin retired, five one-termers have been elected. Three were defeated for a second term and one, John East, was a suicide.

In-state polls suggested that had Edwards opted to run again, he, too, would have been much less than a shoo-in.

Republicans, including the Bush White House, have rallied behind five-term Congressman Richard Burr of Winston-Salem.

Democrats, forced into cautious behind-the-scenes maneuvering so long as Edwards' hadn't declared his intentions, are looking to their losing 2002 Senate candidate, wealthy Charlotte investment banker, former Clinton White House chief of staff and certified Friend of Bill, Erskine Bowles.

Edwards had been under increasing pressure from restive party leaders, looking at his presidential and re-election numbers — and the calendar.