South Carolina is still “Bush Country,” but there are signs
cracks are beginning to form in what once was a solid front.
A string of political setbacks — the indictment of a White House
staffer, growing opposition to the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina’s
aftermath and Harriet Miers’ bungled Supreme Court nomination — have
exacted a personal toll on President Bush.
“Morale is low right now,” says state Republican Party chairman
Katon Dawson. “We still trust the president. We’re supporting him in
South Carolina.”
“Right now, we’re going through some rocky times,” says
Columbia-based Republican consultant Tony Denny. “But we’ll get that
turned around.”
Republicans have a major task ahead of them.
With Bush suffering the lowest approval ratings of his
presidency, the waters look a lot less inviting to politicians
deciding whether to run for office next year. Already, party
strategists are concerned that Republican candidates may suffer in
the 2006 midterm elections.
For instance, Republicans had great hopes of defeating U.S. Rep.
John Spratt, D-S.C., in next year’s election.
Now, they’re not so sure.
“John Spratt is going to win,” predicts state Sen. Mike Fair,
R-Greenville. “I don’t care who runs against him.”
Freshman state Rep. Ralph Norman, R-York, and cable reality show
winner Park Gillespie of York are vying for the GOP nomination to
challenge Spratt.
Both had hoped to be running under the same party banner as a
popular sitting president. But Bush has lost ground among Republican
voters in the state.
According to a recent statewide poll conducted by Richard Quinn
and Associates, a Columbia-based GOP consulting firm, 27 percent of
Republican voters disapprove of the job the president is doing.
That’s up from 9 percent six months ago. Another 24 percent look
unfavorably upon Bush.
“His own party no longer sees their future attached to him,” says
Bob Botsch, a political scientist at the USC Aiken. “In fact, they
see him as a liability. He is definitely a lame duck one year into
his second term.”
Republicans, like state GOP national committeeman Buddy
Witherspoon of Lexington, fret about the potential fallout in next
year’s campaigns.
“I worry about the war in Iraq, that no progress is being made,
that we’re all caught up in a civil war, caught in the middle,” he
says. “I see Bush’s numbers plummeting. How much longer?”
Whatever the answer, he adds, “We’ll stand with Bush in the
end.”
One factor that might help soften the blow to the Republicans is
Democratic ineptitude, said Danielle Vinson, a Furman University
political science professor.
“They don’t look much better,” she says. “They lack a coherent
message.”
Recent polls have shown Republican voters nationally are 7
percent more likely than Democrats to turn out in 2006. Voter
motivation can be critical in non-presidential election years, which
tend to draw far less interest than presidential elections.
However, support for the GOP nationally has fallen to its lowest
level in at least 13 years, according to a poll released last week
by the Pew Research Center.
The causes of the discontent are many: high fuel prices; a
national debt that topped $8 trillion last week; a trio of
hurricanes; the indictment of former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom
DeLay, D-Texas; and the Securities and Exchange Commission probe of
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.
And now the indictment of I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, now-resigned
chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney.
Normally, even in the best of times, voters in midterm elections
punish the party that controls the White House.
But this is not the best of times.
Republicans looking forward to the 2006 election are concerned
that unless a corner is turned in the increasingly unpopular Iraq
war, their candidates will suffer.
“Every president goes through hard times,” says Bert Campbell, a
GOP activist from Clemson. “The people here support the president. I
was behind the president before. I’m behind him now. The problems we
face are larger than politics.”
The elections are a year away — plenty of time to straighten out
some of the issues that plague the GOP, Denny says.
“While there may be some slippage in the polls, and some rough
patches out there right now, I don’t see anything on the horizon
that will be a permanently negative issue,” Denny says. “Bush has
ample time to turn these issues around.”
Clemson University analyst Dave Woodard, a GOP activist,
agrees.
Bush has plenty of time to recover, he says. But to accomplish
that, the president will need some measure of good news.
Regardless, Woodard predicts South Carolina will remain a safe
state for Bush.
“People aren’t ready to jump ship just yet,” Woodard says. “Yes,
morale is low. Republicans don’t have anything to cheer about. But
they still trust Bush.”
Bush has been a reasonably popular president, says Francis Marion
University professor Neal Thigpen, a Republican activist.
“I don’t count him
out.”
